Central-Banks
SNB & CHF: The Swiss National Bank and Swiss Franc Blog
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Immobilier suisse, la réalité du cumul de risques. Olivier Crottaz
Avant-propos: Voici un argumentaire très intéressant que nous livre Olivier Crottaz. Les caisses de pension et autres fonds d’investissement venus de l’étranger se sont engouffrées dans l’autoroute de l’industrie immobilière, construite par la BNS. Du sur mesure donc qui pour l’instant n’a pas tant profité aux Suisses. En Suisse, seulement 37,5% des ménages sont propriétaires de leur logement. Ainsi l’a voulu la corporation des banquiers qui a...
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Rückenwind für die SNB
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SNB appoints new delegate for regional economic relations for Central Switzerland
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Swiss Balance of Payments and International Investment Position: Q2 2018
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Le Conseil fédéral se moque des personnes âgées!
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Das Bad im Geldhaufen
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Monetary Policy Assessment of 20 September 2018
FRED
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Employer contributions : The steep climb of supplemental wage benefits
[embedded content] Employees get paid, and their compensation can be divided into (a) wages and salaries and (b) supplements to wages and salaries. The Bureau of Economic Analysis defines supplements to wages and salaries as “employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds and employer contributions for government social insurance.” This FRED graph shows the fraction of supplements to wages and salaries in total employee...
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The usual suspects (behind U.S. trade deficits): China, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and Germany : A long-term lineup of U.S. trading partners
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The data behind the fear of yield curve inversions
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Unemployment rates by occupation : Layoffs are more likely for some jobs
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When economies just don’t grow : Some countries suffer from long-term economic stagnation
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Tumultuous tax brackets : U.S. income tax brackets have varied (sometimes wildly) over time
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Predicting the payroll employment numbers
Bank Of Japan
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(Research Paper) Private Information and Analyst Coverage: Evidence from Firm Survey Data
October 19, 2018 Yoshiyuki Nakazono*1 Maiko Koga*2 Tomohiro Sugo*3 Full Text [PDF 176KB] Abstract Using a unique panel of survey data on Japanese firms, we provide evidence that firms hold private information revealed in the survey that has predictive power for stock returns. Specifically, we find that the information contained in firms' industry demand forecasts can predict the stock returns of the sector and individual firms up to the next...
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Regional Economic Report (Summary) (Oct. 2018)
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Minutes for the Second Meeting of the Cross-Industry Committee on Japanese Yen Interest Rate Benchmarks on Sep. 26, 2018
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Speech by Board Member Sakurai in Akita on Oct. 11, 2018 (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan)
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Average Interest Rates by Type of Deposit
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Speech by Governor Kuroda at BIS Symposium to Mark the 20th Anniversary of the BIS Representative Office for Asia and the Pacific in Hong Kong on October 15, 2018 (Globalization and Monetary Policy)
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G-7 Fundamental Elements for Threat-led Penetration Testing and Third Party Cyber Risk Management in the Financial Sector
Swiss National Bank News
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2018-10-18 – Financial markets – Public bonds of the Swiss Confederation according to maturity (situation at 18.10.2018)
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2018-10-15 – Press release – Important monetary policy data for the week ending 12 October 2018
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2018-10-12 – Statistics – IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data), 12 October 2018
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2018-10-08 – Press release – Important monetary policy data for the week ending 5 October 2018
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2018-10-05 – Statistics – IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data), 5 October 2018
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2018-10-01 – Press release – Important monetary policy data for the week ending 28 September 2018
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2018-09-28 – Statistics – IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data), 28 September 2018
Atlanta Fed
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Demographically Adjusting the Wage Growth Tracker
« What Does the Current Slope of the Yield Curve Tell Us? | Main In a recent report, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) referred to the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, noting its usefulness as a people-constant measure of wage ...
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What Does the Current Slope of the Yield Curve Tell Us?
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Does Loyalty Pay Off?
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Immigration and Hispanics’ Educational Attainment
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Are Tariff Worries Cutting into Business Investment?
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Improving Labor Market Fortunes for Workers with the Least Schooling
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Part-Time Workers Are Less Likely to Get a Pay Raise
RBA
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Next Generation of Banknotes: $50 Enters General Circulation
The new $50 banknote enters general circulation tomorrow, marking a milestone in the upgrade of Australia's banknotes. The $50 is the most widely circulated banknote, accounting for nearly half of the total value of banknotes in use, and it is the denomination primarily used in ATMs. The new $50 is the third denomination in the new series of banknotes and follows the release...
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Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
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CFR Issues Paper: Review of Retail Payments Regulation: Stored-value Facilities
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Next Generation of Banknotes: Circulation Date for the New $50 Banknote
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Payments System Update
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Payments System Board Update: August 2018 Meeting
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Bilateral Local Currency Swap Agreement with Bank Indonesia
iMFdirect
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Chart of the Week: Words Count for Central Bank Communications in Latin America
By Juan Yepez October 15, 2018 Effective central bank communications are essential in guiding market expectations (photo: lionvision/iStock) When it comes to central banks in Latin America, sometimes words can speak louder than actions. This is because the public and investors rely on central bank communications to make economic and financial decisions. So, clear and consistent communications from a central bank about policy...
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The Wealth of Nations: Governments Can Better Manage What They Own and Owe
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The Financial System Is Stronger, but New Vulnerabilities Have Emerged in the Decade Since the Crisis
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Global Growth Plateaus as Economic Risks Materialize
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Lasting Effects: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the Crisis
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A Decade After Lehman, the Financial System Is Safer. Now We Must Avoid Reform Fatigue
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Central Bank Credibility Pays Off in Times of Stress
JP Koning: Moneyness
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Bitcoin and the bubble theory of money
A few months ago Vijay Boyapati asked me to "steel-man" the bubble theory of money. The bubble theory of money, which can originally be found in a few old Moldbug posts, has been used by Vijay and others to explain the emergence of bitcoin and make predictions about its future.So here is my attempt. I am using not only an article by Vijay as my source text, but also one by Koen Swinkels, a regular commenter on this blog. Both are...
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Are Argentinians paying for Uber rides with bitcoins?
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Did Brexit break the banknote?
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“The Narrow Bank”
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Norbert’s gambit
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Europe’s SWIFT problem
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Two notions of fungibility
Impact Evaluations
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Weekly links October 19: Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus – but only if you live in a rich and equal country, updates in randomization inference, graduation programs vs cash, small clusters not such a problem?
At VoxDev, Sarah Baird, Berk, and I explain why the Econ 101 leisure-labor trade-off model can lead us so far astray in considering the labor impacts of cash transfers of different types (UCTs, CCTs, remittances, pensions, etc.) – and our view of what research needs to measure going forward. On the Education for Global Development ...
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Some advice from survey implementers: Part 1
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A cheap intervention that helped partially formalize firms and increased profits – just don’t ask about taxes
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Weekly links October 12: should you decide on ethics by polling, beware the uneven treatment probabilities, roads are good, and more…
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Can technology enable effective teacher coaching at scale?
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Weekly links October 5: a new vision for social sciences in Science, doing development at non-R1, advice on jobs and on the media, and more…
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Why does my daughter think she’s bad at math?
Amol Agrawal: Mostly Economics
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Featuring lifeboat and lighthouse in banknotes: Case of Norway…
Norway and Sea are connected deeply. They had earlier included cods in their 200 kroner note. Now the new 50 kroner has lighthouse and 500 kroner has lifeboat as key themes. Governor Øystein Olsen in this speech explains: Good morning. It is a great pleasure to be here in Horten and Noatun to mark this important occasion for Norges Bank. On 30 May 2017, we went to Lofoten to launch the new 100-krone and 200-krone banknotes – the first two...
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Promoting financial education using cinema…
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The peso and Philippine economic history
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Inviting Government to “observe” monetary policy meetings: How RBNZ is revisiting many older ideas which were questioned…
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Revisiting role of a central bank: For monetary stability or financial stability or both?
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Pakistan’s IMF bailout is fighting against history
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How railways shaped a modern metropolis: Evidence from London
David Andolfatto: Macro Mania
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What is the yield curve forecasting?
It's well-known that in the United States, recessions are often preceded by an inversion of the yield curve. Is there any economic rationale for why this should be the case? Most yield curve analysis makes reference to nominal interest rates. Economic theory, however, stresses the relevance of real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates. (The distinction does not matter much for the U.S in recent decades, as inflation has remained low and...
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The Trust Machine: The Story of Bitcoin
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Inflation and Unemployment (Part 2)
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Inflation and unemployment
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What anchors inflation?
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The recession of 2012-13 and the taper tantrum
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U.S. GDP Expenditure Components
Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics
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Fed’s Portfolio Manager Says Not to Worry
I ran across an interesting talk by Simon Potter, who is responsible for the System Open Market Account at the New York Fed. Potter is a powerful person in the Fed system, as he looks after the specifics of monetary policy implementation. His talk addresses issues that I discussed in this previous blog post.The first order of business in the talk is the phasing out of the Fed's reinvestment policy. Recall that, after the buildup in the Fed's...
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Should You Be As Excited About GDP Growth As Donald Trump Claims to Be?
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Don’t Fear the Inversion – It’s the Short Rate That Kills You
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Fed Balance Sheet Policy, and Treasury Debt Management
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Fed Balance Sheet News
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Jawboning Makes a Comeback
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What Does “Serious” Mean?
ECB Press Releases
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Peter Praet: Economic policymaking under uncertainty
Speech by Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the “la Caixa” Chair for Economics and Society conference, Madrid, 17 October 2018IntroductionToday I would like to reflect on the consequences of population ageing for economic policy making. It may sound at odds with the title of my remarks – “Economic policy making under uncertainty” – because demographic developments are to a large extent predictable over the short to...
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Luis de Guindos: Euro area and Spain: current status and challenges ahead
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Sabine Lautenschläger: Guardians of stability – Central Banks, supervisors and the quest for financial stability
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Mario Draghi: IMFC Statement
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Account of the monetary policy meeting
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Yves Mersch: Monetary policy in the euro area – a brief assessment
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Staff statement following the tenth post-programme mission to Spain
Tony Yates: Long and Variable
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Guest post by Will Bott: on the democratic legitimacy of a second referendum
Here’s a guest post by Will Bott, also to be found on Twitter. “If public opinion had shifted as much as many proponents of a second referendum claim, or certainly would like, there would be little question about the legitimacy of a second Brexit referendum. Faced with an overwhelming change of heart, few would claim that a previous vote should be considered forever binding on ourselves and future generations. Unfortunately, we probably do not...
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Brexit was not really a neoliberal project, whatever that is
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Will Ireland back down over the border?
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Will the Fed Trump the President or vice versa?
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Did I just accidentally blog about the validity of a radical centrist party in the UK?
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Je ne Bregret rien
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Was poor post crisis macro performance all central banks’ fault?
Bank of Canada
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Business Outlook Survey—Autumn 2018
Data available as: CSV, JSON, and XML
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Senior Loan Officer Survey—Third Quarter of 2018
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Bank of Canada launches new program to foster collaboration with innovators
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Bank of Canada partners with Canadian Foundation for Economic Education to launch new website
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Decrypting “Crypto”
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Bank of Canada launches The Economy, Plain and Simple
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Canada is seizing opportunities from new digital technology, Governor Poloz says
New York Fed
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Bank-Intermediated Arbitrage
Nina Boyarchenko, Thomas M. Eisenbach, Pooja Gupta, Or Shachar, and Peter Van Tassel Since the 2007-09 financial crisis, the prices of closely related assets have shown persistent deviations—so-called basis spreads. Because such disparities create apparent profit opportunities, the question arises of why they are not arbitraged away. In a recent Staff Report, we argue that post-crisis changes to regulation and market structure have...
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Credit Market Choice
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Liquidity Effects of Post-Crisis Regulatory Reform
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Did Banks Subject to LCR Reduce Liquidity Creation?
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Leverage Rule Arbitrage
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What Happens When Regulatory Capital Is Marked to Market?
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Why Do Banks Target ROE?
RBNZ
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Reserve Bank Manager Communications appointed
Release date 19 October 2018 The Reserve Bank today announced the appointment of Naomi Mitchell to the new position of Manager Communications at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Reserve Bank’s Governor Adrian Orr says he is delighted with the appointment as Naomi brings a wealth of experience to the role, having been with the Bank as an adviser in the Communications team for the last six years. Prior to joining the Bank,...
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Secretary to the Treasury invited to observe monetary policy meetings
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Reserve Bank Financial Strength Dashboard proving popular
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NZ Financial system remains sound while the Reserve Bank innovates for the future
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RBNZ comment on CBLI court judgment released today
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Armistice day coin rolls into circulation
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OCR unchanged at 1.75 percent
Bank of International Settlement
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Leverage ratio treatment of client cleared derivatives
Summary of document history Previous version Previousconsultation This version Subsequentconsultation Subsequentversion Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms 7 Dec 2017 Type: Standards Status: Forthcoming...
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Stress testing principles
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Central banks and debt: emerging risks to the effectiveness of monetary policy in Africa?
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Disentangling the supply and demand factors of household credit in Malaysia: evidence from the credit register
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The effects of prudential regulation, financial development and financial openness on economic growth
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Basel III Monitoring Report
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Exchange rates and prices: evidence from the 2015 Swiss franc appreciation
FT Money Supply
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Money Supply 2014-07-29 13:41:38
This blog will no longer be updated. Our thoughts on all things central banking, along with the more wonkish elements of economic policy, will appear on Alphaville and The World blog. Thank you for reading. You can keep in touch using our author alerts and twitter.
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ECB caught up in economists’ spat
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TLTRO: how well has the ECB targeted its loans?
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Live blog: Mario Draghi’s monthly ECB press conference
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Japan’s inflation expectations: glass half empty?
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Carney’s (old) new normal
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ECB’s Cœuré backs student calls to overhaul economics curriculum