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Economic uncertainty and divisive politics: evidence from Spain 1905-45

Summary:
Sandra García-Uribe, Hannes Mueller and Carlos San in this Bank of Spain working paper: This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We fi nd that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertaintyin both newspapers. We study the dynamics behind this shift and provide evidence of a strong empirical link between increasing uncertainty and the rise of divisive political issues at the time: socio-economic conflict, regional separatism, power of the military, and role of the church. This holds even when we exploit variation in content at the newspaper level. This entry was posted on

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Sandra García-Uribe, Hannes Mueller and Carlos San in this Bank of Spain working paper:

This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We fi nd that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertaintyin both newspapers. We study the dynamics behind this shift and provide evidence of a strong empirical link between increasing uncertainty and the rise of divisive political issues at the time: socio-economic conflict, regional separatism, power of the military, and role of the church. This holds even when we exploit variation in content at the newspaper level.

Amol Agrawal
I am currently pursuing my PhD in economics. I have work-ex of nearly 10 years with most of those years spent figuring economic research in Mumbai’s financial sector.

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