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Poverty in China since 1950: A Counterfactual Perspective

Martin Ravallion in this new NBER paper: The other side of the coin to post-reform success is often pre-reform failure, and the policy lessons are found on both sides. The paper estimates how much of China’s poverty rate around 1980—near the outset of Deng Xiaoping’s pro-market reforms—is attributable to the prior Maoist regime. Based on the history, it is argued that South Korea and Taiwan provide a relevant counterfactual. Then a difference-in-difference estimate using historical data indicates that about two thirds of China’s poverty in 1980 is attributed to the impact of the Maoist path since 1950. Further checks and tests suggest that (if anything) this is likely to be an underestimate. It took 10-20 years for China’s post-reform economy to make up the lost ground. The impact

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Martin Ravallion in this new NBER paper:

Amol Agrawal
I am currently pursuing my PhD in economics. I have work-ex of nearly 10 years with most of those years spent figuring economic research in Mumbai’s financial sector.

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