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Anil Panchal



Articles by Anil Panchal

USD/CHF Price Analysis: 21-day SMA, seven-week-old falling trendline question buyers

19 hours ago

USD/CHF registers five-day winning streak, rises to a one-week high.
A downside break of 0.9644 can refresh monthly lows.
38.2% Fibonacci retracement could lure buyers during further upside.
USD/CHF takes the bids to 0.9700, following the intra-day high of 0.9702, while heading into the European session on Wednesday.
The pair nears the key short-term resistance confluence including 21-day SMA 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair November-January fall and a descending trend line since December 06 around 0.9707/13.
Should prices manage to provide a daily closing beyond 0.9717, an extended run-up to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9770 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, lows marked on December 31 and January 17 highlights 0.9644 as the immediate support, a

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Buyers look for entry beyond 0.9650/55

6 days ago

USD/CHF holds onto recovery gains from a 16-month low.
200-hour SMA will please buyers during a sustained breakout.
Bears may aim for September 2018 low following the downside break of the recent bottom.
USD/CHF confronts a one-week-old falling trend line resistance while trading around 0.9650 during early Friday. The pair recently ticked up to 0.9654 but failed to extend the rise.
Hence, buyers will look for entry above 0.9650/55 area while targeting a 200-hour SMA level around 0.9700.
It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s run-up beyond 0.9700 depends upon how well it manages to hold the rise past-January 14 top of 0.9715.
Meanwhile, pair’s declines below the recent low of 0.9612 may catch breath around 0.9600 ahead of plummeting to September 2018 bottom of

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Heavy inside monthly rising trend-channel, 0.9700 in focus

10 days ago

USD/CHF stays below the five-week-old falling trend line, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Bearish MACD increases the odds of the pair’s declines.
Channel’s resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement will question buyers during the recovery.
USD/CHF registers modest changes while taking rounds to 0.9730 ahead of the European session on Monday. The pair recently reversed from a descending trend line since December 06 while also slipping beneath 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the declines from November 29 to December 31.
Even so, sellers are afraid of entry unless USD/CHF prices dip below the support line of the two-week-old rising trend channel, at 0.9705 now.
In doing so, 0.9660 and the year 2019 low near 0.9646 will be on the Bear’s radar.
If at all traders ignore bearish

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sellers hopeful on Doji formation below monthly trendline

13 days ago

USD/CHF portrays buyers’ exhaustion despite the absence of losses since Tuesday.
December month low will be the key to watch.
USD/CHF trades mostly unchanged around 0.9730 while heading into the European session on Friday. The pair formed a Doji candlestick on the daily (D1) chart by Thursday’s end after recovering for the two consecutive prior days.
Considering the candlestick formation indicating the reversal of the previous trend, coupled with the pair’s sustained trading below a downward sloping trend line since December 06, the pair’s further recovery is doubtful.
As a result, sellers will look for entry below Thursday’s low of 0.9711 while targeting 0.9675 and the 2019-end low of 0.9645.
During the quote’s extended downpour beneath 0.9645, 0.9600 and

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Weak below six-week-old falling trendline

15 days ago

USD/CHF recovers amid the recent risk reset.
200-bar SMA adds to the upside barrier, 2019 low holds the key to further declines.
USD/CHF bounces off the intra-day low of 0.9665 to 0.9702 while heading into the European session on Wednesday. The pair benefits from the absence of immediate US-Iran war after Tehran hit US bases in Iraq.
Even so, the pair stays well below the descending trend line since November 29, at 0.9730, which limits the near-term advances.
Should the pair manages to clear 0.9730, it can rise to December 19 low near 0.9770. However, a 200-bar SMA level around 0.9830 could restrict the pair’s further advances.
In a case where the bulls dominate past-0.9830, 0.9920 and November month high of 1.0024 will be on their radars.
Meanwhile, 0.9660 and

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Inside descending channel below 200-HMA

16 days ago

USD/CHF clings to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downpour from Christmas to December 31.
The falling channel, 200-HMA will challenge the Bullish MACD.
The current month top will lure the buyers during further upside.
The USD/CHF pair’s latest recovery seems to struggle around 0.9690 during early Tuesday. A short-term falling trend channel and prices below 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA) seem to question the recently bullish MACD.
As a result, buyers will look for a clear break of 200-HMA level of 0.9722 ahead of targeting the month’s top near 0.9745. It’s worth mentioning that the channel’s resistance-line, at 0.9700, can become an immediate upside barrier.
If at all USD/CHF prices remain strong beyond 0.9745, 0.9770 and December 25 top near 0.9830 will

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USD/CHF stalls three-day winning streak amid broad USD pullback

17 days ago

USD/CHF fails to hold onto recovery gains from multi-month lows.
Doubts over Iran/Iraq’s capacity to retaliate the US might have shuffled the risk tone.
Comments from the NY Fed, GT headlines add to the greenback’s weakness.
USD/CHF refrains from extending the recent recovery while trading around 0.9700 during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair seems to portray the recent risk reshuffle and the US catalysts while stepping back from the weekly top.
Risk reshuffle…
Although the US and Iran are flashing signs as if they’re heading to the war, catalysts show that there are limited signs of it. First among them is France, Germany and the UK’s push for de-escalation of risks. Secondly, the Washington Post doubts the Iraqi PM’s ability to push the US out as

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Eyes on short-term rising trendline after US strikes in Baghdad

20 days ago

USD/CHF drops after the news broke that the key members of Iran have been killed in by the US attack near Baghdad airport.
200-hour EMA, resistance line of immediate rising channel guard adjacent upside.
December month low adds to the support.
USD/CHF declines to 0.9700 during the early Friday’s trading. The quote recently slipped as the Swiss Franc (CHF) strengthened, due to its safe-haven appeal, after the US-Middle East tensions are about to get worst.
Read: US officials confirm responsibility for missile attack at Baghdad airport, killing Qassim Soleimani 
The pair now seems to decline to the support line of the short-term rising channel, at 0.9685, a break of which could extend the fall to December month’s low near 0.9645.
It should, however, be noted that

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USD/CHF drops to fresh four-month low as greenback extends losses

24 days ago

USD/CHF remains week for the fifth consecutive week.
Cautious optimism surrounding the phase-one, a lack of major data and positive performance of commodities seem to weigh on the USD.
Second-tier data from the US and Switzerland will be watched closely for fresh impulse.
USD/CHF declines to 0.9720 amid mildly active trading session on early Monday. The pair has been weighed down by the broad US Dollar (USD) losses off-late.
With the increasing optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, coupled with the year-end sparse trading, investors rush towards cashing out their greenback gains earned previously. Additionally, China’s rant to the US and the US-Middle East tussle seem to add a burden on the pair.
Market’s risk tone seems to lose its earlier strength as the

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USD/CHF: On the back foot below 10-day EMA amid greenback weakness

27 days ago

USD/CHF fails to hold on to previous gains as broad weakness of the USD joins risk reshuffle.
US-China trade optimism confronts Brexit risk while Japan’s data-dump joins China’s Industrial Production data.
Swiss ZEW Survey, trade/political updates will be in the spotlight.
With the broad US Dollar (USD) weakness joining hands with mixed fundamental catalysts, USD/CHF drops to 0.9810 amid the initial Friday trading.
The greenback seems to have lost its allure amid the increasing odds of the US-China phase-one whereas year-end trading lull and downbeat data add to the greenback’s weakness off-late.
On the contrary, the risk of hard Brexit, as suggested by the latest news from The Times, is likely exerting fresh downside pressure on the risk tone. As a result, the US

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Further recovery likely amid sustained break of 10-DMA

December 23, 2019

USD/CHF stays above 10-DMA for the first time in three weeks.
50% Fibonacci retracement can guard immediate upside ahead of 0.9885/90 resistance confluence.
A downside break below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can recall monthly low.
Following its break of 10-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) on Friday, USD/CHF trades around 0.9830 during early Monday.
The pair remains positive above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside. In doing so, 50% Fibonacci retracement, at 0.9845, can please short-term buyers. Though, a confluence of 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, around 0.9885/90, can stop the pair’s further upside.
In a case where prices manage to stay strong beyond 0.9890, December 06 high near 0.9920 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 0.9945

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Falling wedge on 4H, oversold RSI check further declines

December 19, 2019

USD/CHF trades near the multi-month low.
A Bullish technical formation, oversold RSI conditions stop sellers.
The further downside can look towards late-August month low.
USD/CHF seesaws around 0.9800 during the pre-European session on Thursday. The pair forms a bullish technical pattern on the four-hour (4H) chart. Also supporting the hopeful buyers is oversold conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Even so, a sustained break of the bullish pattern’s resistance around 0.9830 becomes necessary for the prices to revisit 0.9920 and November 29 top surrounding 1.0025.
During the rise, 0.9880 and 0.9900 can offer intermediate halts to check the buying sentiment.
On the contrary, pair’s declines below the formation’s support of 0.9775 will accelerate the

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Forms bearish flag on hourly chart

December 10, 2019

USD/CHF sellers await confirmation of the bearish technical pattern.
200-hour EMA limits immediate upside.
Following its heavy declines on Monday, USD/CHF trades near 0.9880 while heading into the European session on Tuesday. The pair forms a bearish flag on the hourly chart while staying near the pattern support by the press time.
With this, sellers will wait for a downside break of flag support, near 0.9870, to aim for the theoretical target of 0.9700. However, lows marked in October and September months near 0.9835 and 0.9800 can offer intermediate halts during the south-run.
Meanwhile, 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.9910 will cap the pair’s immediate upside before shifting market attention to the flag’s resistance line close to 0.9925.
If

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sluggish below 100-DMA, 38.2 percent Fibonacci

December 6, 2019

USD/CHF declines for the second consecutive day.
50% Fibonacci retracement, October low could challenge sellers.
An upside break of 0.9890 highlights 200-DMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
USD/CHF extends the recent pullback while flashing 0.9870 as a quote during early Friday. The pair recently pulled back from 100-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rise.
Prices are now likely declining towards 50% Fibonacci retracement and October low, near 0.9845 and 0.9835 respectively.
In a case sellers refuse to respect 0.9835 rest-point, September bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.9800 will return to the charts.
Alternatively, pair’s sustained trading beyond 0.9890 resistance confluence can push bulls to confront

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 38.2 percent Fibonacci, 200-DMA doubt pullback from monthly low

December 4, 2019

USD/CHF recovers from four weeks’ low.
50% Fibonacci retracement level, October bottom restrict further downside.
200-DMA breakout will again highlight 1.0000 psychological magnet.
USD/CHF seesaws around 0.9873 while heading into the European session on Wednesday. The quote dropped to the lowest since early November on Tuesday but pulls back off-late.
The pair’s refrain to drop further below the latest bottom seems to prepare for a confrontation to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rise, near 0.9890. Though, 200-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA), at 0.9920 now, seems to restrict the quote’s advances afterward.
If at all bulls manage to cross 200-DMA, 0.9980 and 1.0000 could regain market attention.
On the downside, 50% Fibonacci retracement and October

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USD/CHF ignores doubts over phase-one deal, stays around two-month high

December 2, 2019

USD/CHF focuses more on China’s official PMI-led optimism that the US-China tussle.
A few second-tier Swiss data can offer intermediate moves ahead of the US statistics.
Trade/political news will continue driving the markets in the case of strong headlines.

Technical Analysis
October month high near 1.0030 can become immediate resistance ahead of May-end tops surrounding 1.0100. Alternatively, sellers will look for entry below November 08 high near 0.9980.

Technical Analysis – Click to enlarge
With the most Asian markets up for Monday’s trading session, USD/CHF takes the bids to 1.0005 despite Axios conveying the news of delays in the US-China trade deal. The reason could be the underlying optimism offered through China’s official activity numbers.
Market’s

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Sellers focused on spinning top near multi-week high

November 29, 2019

USD/CHF declines after registering a bearish candlestick formation the previous day.
Buyers look for sustained trading beyond 1.0000 psychological magnet.
200-day SMA can please sellers during further downside.
USD/CHF drops to 0.9985 during the early trading session on Friday. That said, the pair formed a bearish “Spinning Top” candlestick formation while taking a U-turn from 1.0000 round-figure.
Considering the pair’s repeated failures to provide a sustained run-up beyond 1.0000, coupled with bearish candlestick pattern, prices are likely declining towards the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.9950.
Though, late-October high close to 0.9970 can offer an intermediate halt during the declines.
In a case where bears dominate below 200-day SMA,

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USD/CHF holds on to recovery gains ahead of Swiss ZEW numbers

November 27, 2019

USD/CHF takes the bids around monthly high.
Optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, global economy confront nearness to data.
The US data, trade/political headlines could drive markets afterward.
USD/CHF respects the previous day’s Doji formation, coupled with upbeat fundamentals, while taking the bids to 0.9980 ahead of Wednesday’s European session.
Comments from the United States (US) President Donald Trump have mostly done the job of spreading market optimism surrounding the US-China phase one deal. The latest one points to the requirement of a good deal. Traders seem to have focused less on the South China Morning Post’s (SCMP) headlines trying to question the US policies for Beijing and signaling restrictions for ZTE and Huawei.
JP Morgan recently came

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 61.8 percent Fibo. on seller’s radar

November 26, 2019

USD/CHF declines from the highest in nearly six weeks.
61.8% of Fibonacci retracement acts as immediate support.
Monthly trend line resistance limits nearby upside.
USD/CHF takes U-turn from one-month-old resistance line while trading around 0.9965 amid the initial trading session on Tuesday.
Given the gradual pullback in the 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) from the overbought conditions, prices might witness additional downside. In doing so, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October month downside, at 0.9935, acts as immediate support.
However, 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and one-week-old rising trend line, around 0.9920, will challenge bears afterward.
On the upside, the pair’s successful rise past-0.9990 resistance line needs to conquer 1.0000

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Immediate support trendline, 200-day SMA limit nearby declines

November 25, 2019

USD/CHF pulls back from six week high.
Falling trend line since early October, 200-day SMA keeps buyers hopeful.
An upside beyond mid-October high could escalate pair’s run-up towards the previous month high.
USD/CHF fails to hold the recent trend line breakout while declining to 0.9970 during early Monday.
Even so, the quote stays beyond a multi-week-old falling support-line, at 0.9960, while also trading above 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.9948.
As a result, buyers can still wait for an upside break of 1.0000 mark before liquidating their longs. In that case, October month high around 1.0030 and late-May top near 1.0100 will be on their radars.
On the downside, pair’s declines below 200-day SMA level of 0.9948 will target 0.9900 round-figure

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 200-day SMA, 7-week-old trendline cap rise to 8-day high

November 22, 2019

Following its latest recovery, USD/CHF rises to the highest since the previous Tuesday.
200-day SMA and multi-week-old resistance line hold the key to pair’s run-up towards 1.0000 mark.
0.9870 can entertain short-term sellers.
Based on its U-turn from 0.9870, the USD/CHF pair current takes the bids to the highest in eight-day while trading around 0.9940 during early Friday.
However, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward sloping trend line since October-starts, around 0.9950 and 0.9965 respectively, stand tall to challenge buyers.
It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s run-up beyond 0.9965 enables it to claim 1.0000 round-figure whereas the previous month high close to 1.0030 could challenge bulls then after.
Should prices take a U-turn from the present

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 5-week-old triangle can limit declines below 200-bar SMA

November 21, 2019

USD/CHF fails to extend uptick beyond 200-bar SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement.
The symmetrical triangle continues to favor sideways momentum.
While failure to break 200-bar SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement speaks loudly of the USD/CHF pair’s weakness, a month-old symmetrical triangle could restrict pair’s near-term moves. The quote takes the rounds to 0.9910 by the press time of the pre-European session on Thursday.
Given the quote’s latest slip beneath key technical levels, prices are likely to revisit the support line of the five-week-old symmetrical triangle formation, at 0.9870, a break of which will open the doors for the pair additional weakness towards October month low near 0.9835 and the September bottom close to 0.9800.
On the contrary, 200-bar Simple

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: 100-day SMA becomes a tough nut to crack for sellers

November 18, 2019

USD/CHF takes another U-turn from 100-day SMA, takes the bids above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as the key support while 200-day SMA holds the pair’s recovery confined.
Following its bounce off 100-day SMA, USD/CHF rises past-38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside while taking the bids to 0.9900 by the press time ahead of the European session on Monday.
Considering the pair’s recent recovery from near-term strong support, prices could revisit 0.9925/30 resistance area ahead of confronting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9942. However, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.9952 continues to act as strong upside barrier.
Should there be a clear run-up beyond 0.9952, the monthly top surrounding 0.9980

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Confronts immediate resistance confluence

November 12, 2019

The USD/CHF pair’s recent recovery confronts 100-HMA, adjacent resistance line.
38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 0.9900 act as nearby supports.
Following its bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current month upside, USD/CHF confronts near-term key resistance confluence while taking the bids to 0.9942 during early Tuesday.
However, a sustained break of 0.9945 becomes necessary for the quote to extend recent recovery towards the support-turned-resistance line of 0.9960 and then to a monthly high near 0.9980.
Given the bullish signal from Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) supporting buyers beyond 0.9980, 1.0000 psychological magnet will be on their radars ahead of October month top near 1.0030.
Alternatively, pair’s declines below 38.2% Fibonacci

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Positive beyond 200-day SMA, 50 percent Fibo.

November 11, 2019

USD/CHF fails to cross mid-October high, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
A downside break of 0.9948 could recall 0.9900 on the chart
Bullish MACD keeps buyers hopeful.
The USD/CHF pair’s failure to rise beyond mid-October highs can’t be considered as it’s weakness unless the quote traders above 200-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August downpour. The prices seesaw around 0.9970 during early Monday.
Also favoring the buyers are the bullish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD).
As a result, prices could keep targeting a sustained move beyond October 15 high around 1.0000, also clearing 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0016, to question May-end top near 1.0100.
On the contrary, pair’s declines below 50% Fibonacci

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USD/CHF remains above 100-day SMA as bulls cheer risk-on, USD strength

November 5, 2019

USD/CHF holds on to recovery gains above 100-day SMA amid increasing hopes of the US-China trade deal.
Comments from Fed’s Daly add to the pair’s strength.
The US PMIs, JOLTS Job Openings to decorate the economic calendar while trade/Brexit headlines will mostly drive risk-tone.
In addition to increasing hopes of an initial trade deal between the US and China, broad US Dollar (USD) strength also helps USD/CHF to take the bids near 0.9885 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday.
While comments from the United States (US) diplomats set the initial risk-on sentiment during Monday, China’s consideration to send the President Xi Jinping for the “Phase One” boosted the odds that the world’s largest economies are closer to the much-awaited trade deal. Recently, the

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Repeated bounces off 50 percent Fibo. keeps bullish bias intact

November 4, 2019

USD/CHF nears 100-day SMA amid yet another bounce off 50% Fibonacci retracement.
61.8% of Fibonacci retracement adds support to the downside.
With its yet another bounce off 50% Fibonacci retracement of August-October advances, USD/CHF nears 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while taking the bids to 0.9865 amid initial trading on Monday.
Should prices manage to close beyond a 100-day SMA level of 0.9871, early October lows near 0.9900 and 0.9940/43 resistance confluence, including a monthly falling trend line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, holds the key to pair’s rise towards 200-day SMA level of 0.9955.
In a case where the quote rallies beyond 0.9955, 1.0000 and the previous month high close to 1.0030 will be the key to watch.
If at all sellers sneak in

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Clings to 23.6 percent Fibo, eyes on Swiss ZEW, Fed

October 30, 2019

USD/CHF stays above 21-day EMA amid bullish MACD.
A daily closing beyond the monthly trendline will trigger fresh upside.
Given the monthly falling resistance line and 21-day EMA confusing USD/CHF traders on a key day, the quote seesaws near 0.9940 during pre-European session on Wednesday.
Adding to the odds of pair’s run-up are bullish signals from the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. However, buyers need a sustained break above a descending trend line since October 03, at 0.9960, to take aim at 1.000 round-figure.
Meanwhile, pair’s declines below 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) highlights the importance of 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of August-October upside, at 0.9885 and 0.9845 respectively.
Other than

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Downside capped by immediate rising channel

October 29, 2019

USD/CHF pulls back from multi-day old falling trend line resistance.
50% of Fibonacci retracement adds strength to the channel’s support.
Although a downward sloping trend line since October 03 recently triggered the USD/CHF pair’s pullback, prices still stay inside a short-term rising channel while taking rounds to 0.9950 during Asian session on Tuesday.
Not only the lower line of the seven-day-old ascending channel but 50% Fibonacci retracement level of current month declines also highlights the importance of 0.9933/30 as the key support.
On the upside, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9956 can be considered as an immediate resistance ahead of looking back to the descending trend line, around 0.9962.
It’s worth pointing that the pair’s rise past-0.9962

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Bearish MACD questions upside beyond 21/200-day EMA

October 25, 2019

USD/CHF trades near the weekly top following a sustained break of the key resistance confluence.
50% Fibonacci retracement, multiple resistance lines on the buyers’ radar.
On early Friday, the USD/CHF pair trades successfully above 21 and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) confluence while taking the bids to 0.9925.
However, the bearish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) raises doubts over the pair’s further upside. If not, 50% Fibonacci retracement level of April-August declines, at 0.9950, followed by three-week-old falling trend line, at 0.9965, could keep buyers in check.
Should there be a price rally beyond 0.9965, a downward sloping resistance line since early May month, at 1.0000 round-figure, will be in the

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