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TradeON Summit – July 28

July 3, 2020

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SWISS slowly expands web of destinations from Zurich and Geneva
Swiss International Air Lines (SWISS) has published its flight schedules up to October 24, the end of the summer timetable. As well as resuming service to more network destinations, it plans to intensify its frequencies on routes already restored in both its short-haul and long-haul networks.

The COVID Crisis Supercharged the War on Cash
The corona crisis has already taken a very high toll and caused deep damage in our societies and our economies, the

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SNB sets up refinancing facility and deactivates counter-cyclical buffer

March 25, 2020

New packages from the SNB
There is no upper limit for virus fund
Drawdowns can be made at any time
Says interest rates to correspond to the SNB policy rate (-0.50%)
Will be available from tomorrow
Full statement:
The coronavirus pandemic is having a serious impact on the Swiss economy. To combat this crisis, it is essential that companies have access to credit and the banking system has access to liquidity.
The Confederation, the SNB and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) have therefore compiled a package of measures together with the banks. In this context, the Swiss National Bank is introducing the new SNB COVID-19 refinancing facility (CRF). This measure is aimed at strengthening the supply of credit to the Swiss economy by providing the

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Scotia says evidence points to Swiss National Bank intervening in CHF

February 27, 2020

FX strategist at Scotiabank cites the relative stability of EUR/CHF (above and around 1.06) in the past  two weeks while turmoil in markets elsewhere 
suggestive of SNB intervention to hold off strength in the Swiss franc
Scotia say sight deposits have risen steadily since the beginning of 2020 – “indicating intervention”. Also make note of the re-inclusion of the SNB on US Treasury Department FX watch list

Euro / Swiss Franc (see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) – Click to enlarge

Related posts: Swiss National Bank Presents New 100-Franc Note
Negative rates might go lower, says Swiss National Bank chairman
The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 51.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019
Swiss National

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SNB’s Jordan: Franc exchange rate is important in relation to Swiss monetary conditions

January 23, 2020

Comments by SNB chief, Thomas Jordan, to CNBC

Thomas Jordan

Negative rates are a necessity
Negative rates have side effects, SNB trying to minimise those side effects
Balance of risks is tilted to the downside
SNB conducts independent monetary policy, does not follow the ECB
But needs to take international environment into account
SNB could still cut rates if needed
Franc is still highly valued
Must maintain negative rates, interventions
SNB can intervene as necessary
The headline remark can be interpreted as saying that they are not big fans of the Swiss franc appreciating. The other remarks so far are the usual platitudes offered by Jordan in every other SNB press conference in the past.

But in this case, these are sensitive times for the franc after having

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SNB’s Jordan: Swiss franc remains highly valued

November 13, 2019

Foreign exchange market remains fragile
Negative rates, readiness for intervention still necessary
Danger of a worsening international situation remains large
Imbalances in Swiss real estate market still persist

Some remarks by the Jordan, cited by the Swiss government. Nothing out of the ordinary here as they maintain their same messaging about the franc and the need to intervene in the FX market as and when is necessary.
Though the timing is a little interesting as we’re seeing the franc appreciate today on the back of more risk off flows in markets. EUR/CHF is now at a one-month low around the 1.09 handle and that may see the central bank start to get a little more hands on again.

Related posts: Pound to Swiss

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The CHF is the strongest, while the GBP is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day

October 16, 2019

Well…maybe some NA traders
The US has a partial holiday with the bond market closed but the US stock markets open. Canada is off for Thanksgiving. So North American traders entering for the day, may be a little stretch today. However, the forex market is open. The CHF is the strongest as some of the euphoria from the events of last week (Brexit hope and China/US) fade and there is a flight into the safety of the CHF (and JPY). The GBP is the weakest as EU’s Barnier pours water on the hopes that the new Brexit deal ideas are good enough.

Change for the Major Currency Pairs – Click to enlarge
The GBP pairs are showing the most price action in the ranges and changes charts below. The GBP is trading down and near the lows as the next session begins. The JPY pairs

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SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75 percent

September 19, 2019

SNB announces its latest monetary policy decision – 19 September 2019

Sight deposits rate unchanged at -0.75%
Willing to intervene and will remain active in FX market as necessary
Expansionary monetary policy continues to be necessary
Trade tensions could further hurt global economic mood
Franc remains highly valued

2019 GDP forecast at 0.5% to 1.0%; previously 1.5%
2019 inflation forecast at 0.4%; previously 0.6%
2020 inflation forecast at 0.2%; previously 0.7%
2021 inflation forecast at 0.6%; previously 1.1%

The notable thing in the decision here is that the SNB has tweaked its basis for interest on deposits. To be more clear, they adjusted the basis for calculating negative interest on sight deposits that are held with the central bank.

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Morgan Stanley forecasts a surprise 25 basis point cut from the SNB

September 17, 2019

The SNB meeting is on Thursday
The Swiss National Bank needs to respond to the strong currency and lower rates from the ECB, according to Morgan Stanley.
The consensus for Thursday’s meeting is no change from -0.75% but Morgan Stanley and UBS are two firms that are forecasting a surprise 25 bps cut.
“What’s motivating the SNB to ease policy is inflation,” economists write in a note today. “It’s low and uncomfortably close to zero, despite loose monetary policy and a tight labour market.”
Another problem is the strength of the currency, which is putting further downward pressure on imports.
A 25 bps cut would be a big enough surprise the jolt inflation back to life and scare off CHF speculators.
Morgan Stanley recognizes that this isn’t a consensus call and say

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CHF is ‘not strong in real terms’ – no need for SNB intervention

September 12, 2019

A note from Standard Chartered on the Swiss National Bank and the Swiss franc. 
The SNB monetary policy meeting is next week, September 19.
In brief, Stan Chart argue the franc is not strong in real terms
adjusting EUR/CHF for inflation leaves CHF around 10% weaker than (non-adjusted) current spot
no need for SNB to intervene to try to weaken it
therefore the SNB is not likely to cut rates at their meeting, nor intervene in forex markets in the near term

EUR/CHF chart, September 2019(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) – Click to enlarge
Looks strong to me…

Related posts: More SNB Maechler: Right now we still have plenty of room for forex intervention
Uptick in site deposits puts the spotlight on SNB

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SNB Jordan: Cannot say how long negative interest rates will last

September 8, 2019

SNBs Jordan on the wires
The Swiss national banks Jordan is on the wires saying:

He cannot say how long negative interest rates will last
Negative rates are necessary for now
Interest rate spreads like important role for exchange rates
The USDCHF is trading higher today. It currently trades at 0.9861. The 100 hour moving average stalled the rally at 0.98737 today. The 200 hour moving average at 0.98479 was rebroken to the upside earlier. That is now support.


Related posts: SNB’s Maechler: Reaffirms Pledges on FX and Intervention, Negative Rates
UBS To Start Charging Rich Clients With Negative 0.75 percent Interest Rate
Towards A Globalist Utopia: “Negative Rates Are Coming, Whether You Like It Or Not”

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More SNB Maechler: Right now we still have plenty of room for forex intervention

August 29, 2019

More from SNB Maechler
Right now is still plenty of room for forex intervention
as to negative rates are working, SNB’s Maechler says “absolutely”
Looking at the EURCHF, the pair is trading near the lowest levels since June 2017. The lows this month tested the lows from back then. The test has stalled the fall.

EUR/CHF, Daily – Jan 2017 – August 2019(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) – Click to enlarge
Drilling to the 4 hour chart below, the price of the EURCHF has been consolidating near the low support level. There is a floor at the 1.0834 to 1.0838 area. On the topside, a trend line cuts across at 1.09178 currently (and moving slowly lower).  In between, the 100 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart comes in at 1.08849. We trade below that level currently

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