« Is There a Taylor Rule for All Seasons? | Main Editor’s note: We have updated macroblog’s location on our website, although archival posts will remain at their original location. Readers who use RSS should update their feed’s URL to https://www.frbatlanta.org/rss/macroblog.aspx. …
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« Faster Wage Growth for the Lowest-Paid Workers | Main In September 2016 we introduced the Taylor Rule Utility, a tool that allows a user to plot the federal funds rate against the prescription from an equation called the Taylor rule, …
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« Is Job Switching on the Decline? | Main On November 25, Fed chair Jay Powell gave a speech titled “Building on the Gains from the Long Expansion,” in which he observed that Recent years’ data paint a hopeful picture of …
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« Private and Central Bank Digital Currencies | Main Here’s a puzzle. Unemployment is at a historically low level, yet nominal wage growth is not even back to prerecession levels (see, for example, the Atlanta Fed’s own Wage Growth Tracker). Why …
Read More »« New Evidence Points to Mounting Trade Policy Effects on U.S. Business Activity | Main The Atlanta Fed recently hosted a workshop, “Financial System of the Future,” which was cosponsored by the Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk at Georgia …
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« Digging into Older Americans’ Flat Participation Rate | Main | Private and Central Bank Digital Currencies » Trade worries remain at the forefront of economic news. Average tariffs on Chinese imports now stand at 21 percent, up from …
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« What the Wage Growth of Hourly Workers Is Telling Us | Main The rate of labor force participation (LFP) by people age 55 and over had been rising during the decade leading up to the Great Recession. But more recently, …
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« Making Analysis of the Current Population Survey Easier | Main The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker has shown an uptick during the past several months. The 12-month average reached 3.7 percent in June, up from 3.2 percent last year. But …
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« Mapping the Financial Frontier at the Financial Markets Conference | Main Speaking from experience, research projects often require many grueling hours of deciphering obtuse data dictionaries, recoding variable definitions to be consistent, and checking for data errors. Inevitably, you miss …
Read More »« The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, SALT, and the Blue State Blues: It’s All Relative | Main The Atlanta Fed recently hosted its 24th annual Financial Markets Conference, whose theme was Mapping the Financial Frontier: What Does the Next Decade …
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« Improving Labor Force Participation | Main | Mapping the Financial Frontier at the Financial Markets Conference » Nearly two months have passed since tax day, but the full impact of the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) …
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« Tariff Worries and U.S. Business Investment, Take Two | Main The share of the prime-age population engaged in the U.S. labor market is on the rise, led by a sharp rebound in the labor force participation (LFP) rate by prime-age …
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« Trends in Hispanic Labor Force Participation | Main Last summer, we reported that one fifth of firms in the July Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) were reassessing capital expenditure plans in light of then-recent tariff hikes and retaliation concerns. Roughly …
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« Quantitative Frightening? | Main Although the labor force participation (LFP) rate has fallen significantly for the overall population during the past two decades, the trends can differ a great deal depending on which demographic group you examine. One way to …
Read More »« Are Employers Focusing More on Staff Retention? | Main I didn’t coin the title of this blog post. It was the label on a chart of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet that appeared in an issue of The Wall Street …
Read More »« Defining Job Switchers in the Wage Growth Tracker | Main Many people are quitting their current job. According to data from the Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, workers are voluntarily leaving …
Read More »« Cryptocurrency and Central Bank E-Money | Main Among the questions we receive about the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, one of the most frequent is about the construction of the job switcher and job stayer series. These series are derived …
Read More »« Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker (Take Two) | Main The Atlanta Fed recently hosted a workshop, “Financial Stability Implications of New Technology,” which was cosponsored by the Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk at Georgia …
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« Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker | Main In a previous macroblog post, I thought I had discovered an interesting differential between the wage growth of middle-wage earners and that of low/high-paid workers. It turns out that …
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« On Maximizing Employment, a Case for Caution | Main One of the most frequent questions we receive about the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker (the median of year-over-year percent changes in individuals’ hourly wage) is about the relationship between wage …
Read More »« Demographically Adjusting the Wage Growth Tracker | Main Over the past few months, I have been asked one question regularly: Why is the Fed removing monetary policy stimulus when there is little sign that inflation has run amok and threatens …
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« Improving Labor Market Fortunes for Workers with the Least Schooling | Main “Nobody’s model does a very good job of how uncertainty and hits to confidence affect behavior,” says Deutsche Bank’s Peter Hooper in a recent Wall Street Journal article. …
Read More »« Part-Time Workers Are Less Likely to Get a Pay Raise | Main A recent Wall Street Journal story observed that the strong labor market is having a particularly positive impact on those with the least amount of formal schooling. Research …
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« Learning about an ML-Driven Economy | Main A recent FEDS Notes article summarized some interesting findings from the Board of Governors’ 2017 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. One set of responses that caught my eye explored the connection between …
Read More »« Hitting a Cyclical High: The Wage Growth Premium from Changing Jobs | Main Developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have drawn considerable attention from both the real and financial sides of the economy. The Atlanta Fed’s recent …
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« Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 4: Flexible Price-Level Targeting in the Big Picture | Main The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker rose 3.3 percent in March. While this increase is up from 2.9 percent in February, the …
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« Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 3: An Example of Flexible Price-Level Targeting | Main In the second post of this series, I enumerated several alternative monetary policy frameworks. Each is motivated by a recognition that the Federal …
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« Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework, Part 2: The Principle of Bounded Nominal Uncertainty | Main I want to start my discussion in this post with two points I made in the previous two macroblog posts (here and here). …
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« Thoughts on a Long-Run Monetary Policy Framework: Framing the Question | Main In yesterday’s macroblog post, I discussed one of the central monetary policy questions of the day: Is the possibility of hitting the lower bound on policy rates likely …
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« What Are Businesses Saying about Tax Reform Now? | Main “Should the Fed stick with the 2 percent inflation target or rethink it?” This was the very good question posed in a special conference hosted by the Brookings Institution this …
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