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Macro Blog

The Atlanta Fed's macroblog provides commentary and analysis on economic topics including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, inflation, labor economics, and financial issues. Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.

Articles by Macro Blog

What the Wage Growth of Hourly Workers Is Telling Us

16 days ago

« Making Analysis of the Current Population Survey Easier | Main The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker has shown an uptick during the past several months. The 12-month average reached 3.7 percent in June, up from 3.2 percent last year. But …

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Making Analysis of the Current Population Survey Easier

July 15, 2019

« Mapping the Financial Frontier at the Financial Markets Conference | Main Speaking from experience, research projects often require many grueling hours of deciphering obtuse data dictionaries, recoding variable definitions to be consistent, and checking for data errors. Inevitably, you miss …

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Tariff Worries and U.S. Business Investment, Take Two

February 25, 2019

« Trends in Hispanic Labor Force Participation | Main Last summer, we reported that one fifth of firms in the July Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) were reassessing capital expenditure plans in light of then-recent tariff hikes and retaliation concerns. Roughly …

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Trends in Hispanic Labor Force Participation

February 14, 2019

« Quantitative Frightening? | Main Although the labor force participation (LFP) rate has fallen significantly for the overall population during the past two decades, the trends can differ a great deal depending on which demographic group you examine. One way to …

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Quantitative Frightening?

January 16, 2019

« Are Employers Focusing More on Staff Retention? | Main I didn’t coin the title of this blog post. It was the label on a chart of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet that appeared in an issue of The Wall Street …

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Are Employers Focusing More on Staff Retention?

January 11, 2019

« Defining Job Switchers in the Wage Growth Tracker | Main Many people are quitting their current job. According to data from the Job Openings, Layoffs, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, workers are voluntarily leaving …

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Defining Job Switchers in the Wage Growth Tracker

December 4, 2018

« Cryptocurrency and Central Bank E-Money | Main Among the questions we receive about the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, one of the most frequent is about the construction of the job switcher and job stayer series. These series are derived …

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Cryptocurrency and Central Bank E-Money

November 29, 2018

« Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker (Take Two) | Main The Atlanta Fed recently hosted a workshop, “Financial Stability Implications of New Technology,” which was cosponsored by the Center for the Economic Analysis of Risk at Georgia …

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Polarization through the Prism of the Wage Growth Tracker

November 14, 2018

« On Maximizing Employment, a Case for Caution | Main One of the most frequent questions we receive about the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker (the median of year-over-year percent changes in individuals’ hourly wage) is about the relationship between wage …

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On Maximizing Employment, a Case for Caution

October 26, 2018

« Demographically Adjusting the Wage Growth Tracker | Main Over the past few months, I have been asked one question regularly: Why is the Fed removing monetary policy stimulus when there is little sign that inflation has run amok and threatens …

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Are Tariff Worries Cutting into Business Investment?

August 7, 2018

« Improving Labor Market Fortunes for Workers with the Least Schooling | Main “Nobody’s model does a very good job of how uncertainty and hits to confidence affect behavior,” says Deutsche Bank’s Peter Hooper in a recent Wall Street Journal article. …

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Part-Time Workers Are Less Likely to Get a Pay Raise

June 1, 2018

« Learning about an ML-Driven Economy | Main A recent FEDS Notes article summarized some interesting findings from the Board of Governors’ 2017 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking. One set of responses that caught my eye explored the connection between …

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Learning about an ML-Driven Economy

May 31, 2018

« Hitting a Cyclical High: The Wage Growth Premium from Changing Jobs | Main Developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have drawn considerable attention from both the real and financial sides of the economy. The Atlanta Fed’s recent …

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What Are Businesses Saying about Tax Reform Now?

March 23, 2018

« A First Look at Employment | Main In a recent macroblog post, we shared some results of a joint national survey that is an ongoing collaboration between the Atlanta Fed, Nick Bloom of Stanford University, and Steve Davis of the …

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A First Look at Employment

March 6, 2018

« Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker | Main One Friday morning each month at 8:30 is always an exciting time here at the Atlanta Fed. Why, you might ask? Because that’s when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues the …

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Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker

February 28, 2018

« GDPNow’s Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently? | Main ​ The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker (WGT) has shown its usefulness as an indicator of labor market conditions, producing a better-fitting Phillips curve than other measures of wage growth. So …

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GDPNow’s Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?

February 13, 2018

« How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really? | Main If you felt whipsawed by GDPNow recently, it’s understandable. On February 1, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of first-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth surged from 4.2 percent …

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How Low Is the Unemployment Rate, Really?

January 18, 2018

« What Businesses Said about Tax Reform | Main In 2017, the unemployment rate averaged 4.4 percent. That’s quite low on a historical basis. In fact, it’s the lowest level since 2000, when unemployment averaged 4.0 percent. But does that mean …

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What Businesses Said about Tax Reform

January 17, 2018

« Financial Regulation: Fit for New Technologies? | Main Many folks are wondering what impact the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—which was introduced in the House on November 2, 2017, and signed into law a few days before Christmas—will have on …

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Financial Regulation: Fit for New Technologies?

January 4, 2018

« Is Macroprudential Supervision Ready for the Future? | Main In a recent interview, the computer scientist Andrew Ng said, “Just as electricity transformed almost everything 100 years ago, today I actually have a hard time thinking of an industry that …

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Is Macroprudential Supervision Ready for the Future?

January 3, 2018

« Labor Supply Constraints and Health Problems in Rural America | Main Virtually everyone agrees that systemic financial crises are bad not only for the financial system but even more importantly for the real economy. Where the disagreements arise is how …

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