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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

Articles by NY Fed

First-Time Buyers Were Undeterred by Rapid Home Price Appreciation in 2021

6 days ago

Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy

Tight inventories of homes for sale combined with strong demand pushed up national house prices by an eye-popping 19 percent, year over year, in January 2022. This surge in house prices created concerns that first-time buyers would increasingly be priced out of owning a home. However, using our Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on anonymized Equifax credit report data, we find that the share of purchase mortgages going to first-time buyers actually increased slightly from 2020 to 2021.

The housing market was very active last year. As shown below, new purchase mortgage volume increased for the tenth consecutive year since a low in 2011 following the housing bust. We classify a household as a first-time buyer (FTB) if there has never been a mortgage

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Refinance Boom Winds Down

8 days ago

By Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw 

Total household debt balances continued their upward climb in the first quarter of 2022 with an increase of $266 billion; this rise was primarily driven by a $250 billion increase in mortgage balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Creditfrom the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Mortgages, historically the largest form of household debt, now comprise 71 percent of outstanding household debt balances, up from 69 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Driving the increase in mortgage balances has been a high volume of new mortgage originations, which we define as mortgages that newly appear on credit reports and includes both purchase and refinance

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Who Are the Federal Student Loan Borrowers and Who Benefits from Forgiveness?

27 days ago

Jacob Goss, Daniel Mangrum, and Joelle Scally

The pandemic forbearance for federal student loans was recently extended for a sixth time—marking a historic thirty-month pause on federal student loan payments. The first post in this series uses survey data to help us understand which borrowers are likely to struggle when the pandemic forbearance ends. The results from this survey and the experience of some federal borrowers who did not receive forbearance during the pandemic suggest that delinquencies could surpass pre-pandemic levels after forbearance ends. These concerns have revived debates over the possibility of blanket forgiveness of federal student loans. Calls for student loan forgiveness entered the mainstream during the 2020 election with most proposals centering around blanket

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What Might Happen When Student Loan Forbearance Ends?

27 days ago

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Jessica Lu, and Wilbert van der Klaauw

Federal student loan relief was recently extended through August 31, 2022, marking the sixth extension during the pandemic. Such debt relief includes the suspension of student loan payments, a waiver of interest, and the stopping of collections activity on defaulted loans. The suspension of student loan payments was expected to help 41 million borrowers save an estimated $5 billion per month. This post is the first in a two-part series exploring the implications and distributional consequences of policies that aim to address the student debt burden. Here, we focus on the uneven consequences of student debt relief and its withdrawal. With the end-date of the student loan relief drawing near, a key question is whether and how

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Inflation Persistence: How Much Is There and Where Is It Coming From?

28 days ago

Martín Almuzara and Argia Sbordone

The surge in inflation since early 2021 has sparked intense debate. Would it be short-lived or prove to be persistent? Would it be concentrated within a few sectors or become broader? The answers to these questions are not so clear-cut. In our view, one should ask how much of the inflation is persistent and how much of it is broad-based. In this post, we address this question through a quantitative lens. We find that the large ups and downs in inflation over the course of 2020 were largely the result of transitory shocks, often sector-specific. In contrast, sometime in the fall of 2021, inflation dynamics became dominated by the trend component, which is persistent and largely common across sectors.

A Multivariate Core Trend of PCE Inflation

To

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Expected Home Price Increases Accelerate over the Short Term but Remain Stable over the Medium Term

April 18, 2022

Fatima-Ezzahra Boumahdi, Leo Goldman, Andrew Haughwout, Ben Hyman, Haoyang Liu, and Jason Somerville

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2022 SCE Housing Survey shows that expected changes in home prices in the year ahead increased relative to the corresponding timeframe in the February 2021 survey, while five-year expectations remained unchanged. Households reported that they would be less likely to buy if they were to move compared to the year-ago survey, marking the first annual decline since the series began in 2014. This drop was driven by current renters, who were much less likely to buy compared to renters in the 2021 survey. Renters also reported that they expect rents to be sharply higher twelve months from now, with the expected rate of increase more than twice that

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The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff: The Role of Levered NBFIs and Households

April 12, 2022

Marco Cipriani, James Clouse, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, and Will Riordan

In a Liberty Street Economics post that appeared yesterday, we described the mechanics of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet “runoff” when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by banks and money market funds (MMFs). The same mechanics would largely hold true when mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are purchased by banks. In this post, we show what happens when newly issued Treasury securities are purchased by levered nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)—such as hedge funds or nonbank dealers—and by households.

Simplified Balance Sheets

In the exhibit below, we describe the simplified balance sheets for the Fed, banks, MMFs, NBFIs, and households. We only show the balance sheet items that are

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The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility

April 11, 2022

Marco Cipriani, James Clouse, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, and Will Riordan

A 2017 Liberty Street Economics post described the balance sheet effects of the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to cease reinvestments of maturing securities—that is, the mechanics of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet “runoff.” At the time, the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility was fairly small (less than $200 billion for most of July 2017) and was not mentioned in the post for the sake of simplicity. Today, by contrast, take-up at the ON RRP facility is much larger (over $1.5 trillion for most of 2022). In this post, we update the earlier analysis and describe how the presence of the ON RRP facility affects the mechanics of the balance sheet runoff.

Simplified Balance Sheets

In the

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Climate Change and Financial Stability: The Weather Channel

April 4, 2022

Kristian Blickle and Donald Morgan

Climate change could affect banks and the financial systems they anchor through various channels: increasingly extreme weather is one (Financial Stability Board, Basel Committee on Bank Supervision). In our recent staff report, we size up this channel by studying how U.S. banks, large and small, fared against disasters past. We find even the most destructive disasters had insignificant or small effects on bank stability and small and positive effects on bank income. We conjecture that recovery lending after disasters helps stabilize larger banks while smaller, local banks’ knowledge of “unmarked” (flood) hazards may help them navigate disaster risk. Federal disaster aid seems not to act as a bank stabilizer.

Bank Disaster Exposure

We

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How Have the Euro Area and U.S. Labor Market Recoveries Differed?

March 30, 2022

Thomas Klitgaard

The initial phase of the pandemic saw the euro area and U.S unemployment rates behave quite differently, with the rate for the United States rising much more dramatically than the euro area rate.  Two years on, the rates for both regions are back near pre-pandemic levels. A key difference, though, is that U.S. employment levels were down by 3.0 million jobs in 2021:Q4 relative to pre-pandemic levels, while the number of euro area jobs was up 600,000. A look at employment by industry shows that both regions had large shortfalls in the accommodation and food services industries, as expected. A key difference is the government sector, with the number of those jobs in the euro area up by 1.5 million, while the government sector in the United States shed 600,000.

The

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Student Loan Repayment during the Pandemic Forbearance

March 22, 2022

Jacob Goss, Daniel Mangrum, and Joelle Scally

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought substantial financial uncertainty for many Americans. In response, executive and legislative actions in March and April 2020 provided unprecedented debt relief by temporarily lowering interest rates on Direct federal student loans to 0 percent and automatically placing these loans into administrative forbearance. As a result, nearly 37 million borrowers have not been required to make payments on their student loans since March 2020, resulting in an estimated $195 billion worth of waived payments through April 2022. However, 10 million borrowers with private loans or Family Federal Education Loan (FFEL) loans owned by commercial banks were not granted the same relief and continued to make payments

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2022

March 18, 2022

Ozge Akinci, Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti

This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since December 2021. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process. For more information about the model and variables discussed here, see our DSGE model Q & A.

The March 2022 model forecast is reported in the table below, alongside the one from December 2021, and depicted in the charts that follow. The forecast uses quarterly macroeconomic data

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Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update

March 3, 2022

Gianluca Benigno, Julian Di Giovanni, Jan Groen, and Adam Noble

Supply chain disruptions continue to be a major challenge as the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. In a January post, we presented the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) as a parsimonious global measure that encompasses several indicators used to capture supply chain disruptions. The main purpose of this post is to provide an update of the GSCPI through February 2022. In addition, we use the index’s underlying data to discuss the drivers of recent moves in the GSCPI. Finally, these data are used to create country-specific supply chain pressures indices.

Updated GSCPI

The chart below shows the GSCPI through February 2022, and it points to an easing in global supply chain pressures since

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Disinflation Policies with a Flat Phillips Curve

March 2, 2022

Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti 

Yesterday’s post analyzed the drivers of the surge in inflation over the course of 2021 through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. In today’s post, we use the model to study how alternative monetary policy strategies might contribute to bringing inflation back down to 2 percent. Our main finding is that there is no monetary silver bullet. Due to a flat Phillips curve—a well–documented feature of the economic environment of the last three decades—monetary policy can only achieve faster disinflation at a considerable cost in terms of forgone economic activity. This is true regardless of the systematic approach followed by the central bank in the model to pursue its objective.

Monetary Policy and

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Drivers of Inflation: The New York Fed DSGE Model’s Perspective

March 1, 2022

Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti 

After a sharp decline in the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rebounded in the second half of 2020 and surged through 2021. This post analyzes the drivers of these developments through the lens of the New York Fed DSGE model. Its main finding is that the recent rise in inflation is mostly accounted for by a large cost-push shock that occurred in the second quarter of 2021 and whose inflationary effects persist today. Based on the model’s reading of historical data, this shock is expected to fade gradually over the course of 2022, returning quarterly inflation to close to 2 percent only in mid-2023. 

Before delving into the analysis, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model

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How (Un-)Informed Are Depositors in a Banking Panic? A Lesson from History

February 17, 2022

Kristian Blickle, Markus Brunnermeier, and Stephan Luck

How informed or uninformed are bank depositors in a banking crisis? Can depositors anticipate which banks will fail? Understanding the behavior of depositors in financial crises is key to evaluating the policy measures, such as deposit insurance, designed to prevent them. But this is difficult in modern settings. The fact that bank runs are rare and deposit insurance universal implies that it is rare to be able to observe how depositors would behave in absence of the policy. Hence, as empiricists, we are lacking the counterfactual of depositor behavior during a run that is undistorted by the policy. In this blog post and the staff report on which it is based, we go back in history and study a bank run that took place in Germany in

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The Omicron Wave Stalled Growth and Led to High Absenteeism in the Region

February 16, 2022

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, and Richard Deitz

Even before the start of the new year, businesses in the tri-state region were hampered by supply disruptions, rising input costs, and difficulty finding adequate staff. On top of these challenges, the Omicron wave dealt another setback to the regional economy. With infections running high, many businesses were forced to deal with a combination of reduced demand from customers and renewed absenteeism among workers. Indeed, our regional business surveys indicate that economic growth stalled in early 2022 as firms continued to struggle to find workers. Moreover, employee absenteeism was reported to be nearly three times its normal level. While the path of recovery remains highly uncertain, firms generally expect conditions to improve in the

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The Making of Fallen Angels—and What QE and Credit Rating Agencies Have to Do with It

February 16, 2022

Viral V. Acharya, Ryan Banerjee, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert, and Renée Spigt

Riskier firms typically borrow at higher rates than safer firms because investors require compensation for taking on more risk. However, since 2009 this relationship has been turned on its head in the massive BBB corporate bond market, with risky BBB-rated firms borrowing at lower rates than their safer BBB-rated peers. The resulting risk materialized in an unprecedented wave of “fallen angels” (or firms downgraded below the BBB investment-grade threshold) at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this post, based on a related Staff Report, we claim that this anomaly has been driven by a combination of factors: a boost in investor demand for investment-grade bonds associated with the Federal Reserve’s

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What Are Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Telling Us Today?

February 14, 2022

Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koşar, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and John C. Williams

The United States has experienced a considerable rise in inflation over the past year. In this post, we examine how consumers’ inflation expectations have responded to inflation during the pandemic period and to what extent this is different from the behavior of consumers’ expectations before the pandemic. We analyze two aspects of the response of consumers’ expectations to changing conditions. First, we examine by how much consumers revise their inflation expectations in response to inflation surprises. Second, we look at the pass-through of revisions in short-term inflation expectations to revisions in longer-term inflation expectations. We use data from the New York Fed’s Survey of

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Car Prices Drive Up Borrowing

February 8, 2022

By Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw 

Total household debt increased substantially during the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a $1.02 trillion increase in aggregate debt balances, according to the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2021 from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. The yearly increase was the largest seen since 2007 in nominal terms and was boosted by particularly robust growth in mortgage balances, which grew by nearly $900 billion through 2021. Credit card balances, which have followed an unusual path during the pandemic, saw a large seasonal increase in the fourth quarter but remain well below pre-pandemic levels. And student loan balances increased only

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The Future of Payments Is Not Stablecoins

February 7, 2022

Rod Garratt, Michael Lee, Antoine Martin, and Joseph Torregrossa

Stablecoins, which we define as digital assets used as a medium of exchange that are purported to be backed by assets held specifically for that purpose, have grown considerably in the last two years. They rose from a market capitalization of $5.7 billion on December 1, 2019, to $155.6 billion on January 21, 2022. Moreover, a market that was once dominated by a single stablecoin—Tether (USDT)—now boasts five stablecoins with valuations over $1 billion (as of January 21, 2022; data about the supply of stablecoins can be found here). Analysts have started to pay increased attention to the stablecoin market, and the President’s Working Group (PWG) on Financial Markets released a report on stablecoins on November 1, 2021. In

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Housing Returns in Big and Small Cities

February 2, 2022

Francisco Amaral, Martin Dohmen, Sebastian Kohl, and Moritz Schularick

Houses are the largest asset for most households in the United States, as is the case in many other countries as well. Within countries, there is substantial regional variation in house prices—compare real estate values in Manhattan, New York City, with those in Manhattan, Kansas, for example. But what about returns on investment? Are long-run returns on real estate investment—the sum of price appreciation and rental income flows—higher in superstar cities like New York than in the rest of the country? In this blog post, we present new and potentially surprising insights from research comparing long-run returns on residential real estate in a nation’s largest cities to those experienced in the rest of the country

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Pricing Liquidity without Preemptive Runs

January 31, 2022

Marco Cipriani, Antoine Martin, and Patrick McCabe

Prime money market funds (MMFs) are vulnerable to runs. This was dramatically illustrated in September 2008 and March 2020, when massive outflows from prime MMFs worsened stress in the short-term funding markets and eased only after taxpayer-supported interventions by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. In this post, we describe how mechanisms like swing pricing that charge a price for liquidity can reduce the vulnerability of prime MMFs without triggering preemptive runs.

Prime MMF Fragility

One feature of prime MMFs that contributes to their run vulnerability is liquidity transformation. That is, prime MMF shares are more liquid than many of the assets they hold, and even in crises when market liquidity costs for those assets

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The Global Supply Side of Inflationary Pressures

January 28, 2022

Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Ruth Cesar Heymann, Julian di Giovanni, Jan J. J. Groen, Lawrence Lin, and Adam I. Noble

U.S. inflation has surged as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 recession. This phenomenon has not been confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies albeit not with the same intensity. In this post, we draw from the current international experiences to provide an assessment of the drivers of U.S. inflation. In particular, we exploit the link among different measures of inflation at the country level and a number of global supply side variables to uncover which common cross-country forces have been driving observed inflation. Our main finding is that global supply factors are very strongly associated with

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The Fed’s Latest Tool: A Standing Repo Facility

January 13, 2022

Gara Afonso, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, William Riordan, and Patricia Zobel

In July 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee announced a new tool for monetary policy implementation: a domestic standing repurchase agreement facility. In the last post of this series, we explain what this new tool is and how it will support the effective implementation of monetary policy in the floor system through which the Fed implements policy.

What Is the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility?

As noted in earlier posts in this series, under the Fed’s current monetary policy implementation framework the supply of reserves is sufficiently large to ensure that the Fed’s administered rates—the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) rates—influence the federal

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How the Fed Adjusts the Fed Funds Rate within Its Target Range

January 12, 2022

Gara Afonso, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, William Riordan, and Patricia Zobel

At its June 2021 meeting, the FOMC maintained its target range for the fed funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points, while two of the Federal Reserve’s administered rates—interest on reserve balances and the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility offering rate—each were increased by 5 basis points. What do these two simultaneous decisions mean? In today’s post, we look at “technical adjustments”—a tool the Fed can deploy to keep the FOMC’s policy rate well within the target range and support smooth market functioning.

Administered Rates and Rate Control

As noted in the first post of this series, the FOMC chooses the target range for the fed funds rate to communicate the stance of monetary policy. The

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How the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Works

January 11, 2022

Gara Afonso, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, William Riordan, and Patricia Zobel

Daily take-up at the overnight reverse repo (ON RRP) facility increased from less than $1 billion in early March 2021 to just under $2 trillion on December 31, 2021. In the second post in this series, we take a closer look at this important tool in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework and discuss the factors behind the recent increase in volume.

In yesterday’s post, we presented a stylized view of the Fed’s implementation framework for monetary policy, in which (i) the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communicates the stance of monetary policy through a target range for the federal funds rate, (ii) interest on reserve balances (IORB) is a key tool, and (iii) an ample supply of

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How the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Implementation Framework Has Evolved

January 10, 2022

Gara Afonso, Lorie Logan, Antoine Martin, William Riordan, and Patricia Zobel

In a series of four posts, we review key elements of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy implementation framework. The framework has changed markedly in the last two decades. Prior to the global financial crisis, the Fed used a system of scarce reserves and fine-tuned the supply of reserves to maintain rate control. However, since then, the Fed has operated in a floor system, where active management of the supply of reserves no longer plays a role in rate control, but rather the Fed’s administered rates influence the federal funds rate. In this first post, we discuss the salient features of the implementation framework in a stylized way.

Pre 2008, Reserve Scarcity

Before October 2008, the

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The Effect of Inequality on the Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

January 7, 2022

Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, and Laura Pilossoph

Monetary policy can have a meaningful impact on inequality, as recent theoretical and empirical studies suggest. In light of this, how should policy be conducted? And how does inequality affect the transmission of monetary policy? These are the topics covered in the second part of the recent symposium on “Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy,” hosted by the new Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) of the New York Fed on November 12.

Inequality and the Transmission of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

The first session in the afternoon (the agenda includes links to all of the presentations) asked what we have learned from the new literature on Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models about the

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The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Inequality

January 6, 2022

Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, and Laura Pilossoph

How does accounting for households’ heterogeneity—and in particular inequality in income and wealth—change our approach to macroeconomics? What are the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on inequality, and what did we learn in this regard from the COVID-19 pandemic? What are the implications of inequality for the transmission of monetary policy, and its ability to stabilize the economy? These are some of the questions that were debated at a recent symposium on “Heterogeneity in Macroeconomics: Implications for Policy” organized by the new Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center (AMEC) of the New York Fed on November 12.

The Symposium

The Symposium brought together a distinguished panel of researchers from academia

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