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What comes next? Recovery from an uneven recession

Summary:
BIS Bulletin  |  No 33  |  02 December 2020 by  Daniel Rees PDF full text (625kb)  |  9 pages Key takeaways The effects of the Covid crisis have been felt unevenly across sectors, and the output of customer service industries could remain well below its pre-Covid trend for some time. Economies with large customer service industries could grow more slowly in the near term, even after accounting for the stringency of containment measures and the severity of virus outbreaks. Model projections suggest that large advanced economies could face a "98% economy" until constraints on customer service industries

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BIS Bulletin  |  No 33  | 
02 December 2020
PDF full text
 (625kb)
 |  9 pages

Key takeaways

  • The effects of the Covid crisis have been felt unevenly across sectors, and the output of customer service industries could remain well below its pre-Covid trend for some time.
  • Economies with large customer service industries could grow more slowly in the near term, even after accounting for the stringency of containment measures and the severity of virus outbreaks.
  • Model projections suggest that large advanced economies could face a "98% economy" until constraints on customer service industries ease. The outlook for some economies, such as China, is more positive.
  • While demand stimulus remains necessary in the near term, it will not be sufficient to return economic activity to its pre-Covid trend. That will require public health measures to control the spread of the virus and steps to ease resource reallocation to industries less affected by the pandemic.

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International Settlement
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international company limited by shares owned by central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks". The BIS carries out its work through subcommittees, the secretariats it hosts and through an annual general meeting of all member banks. It also provides banking services, but only to central banks and other international organizations. It is based in Basel, Switzerland, with representative offices in Hong Kong and Mexico City.

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