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New York Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

At the New York Fed: Fourteenth Annual Joint Conference with NYU-Stern on Financial Intermediation

Kristian Blickle, Anna Kovner, and Shivram Viswanathan An understanding of the developments in financial intermediation is critical to the efforts of the New York Fed to promote financial stability and economic growth. In line with this mission, the Bank recently hosted the fourteenth annual Federal Reserve Bank of New York-New York University Stern School of Business Conference on Financial Intermediation. As in years past, the conference attracted a large number of academics and...

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Firm-Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause

Julian di Giovanni Large firms play an integral role in aggregate economic activity owing to their size and production linkages. Events specific to these large firms can thus have significant effects on the macroeconomy. Quantifying these effects is tricky, however, given the complexity of the production process and the difficulty in identifying firm-level events. The recent pause in Boeing’s 737 MAX production is a striking example of such an event or “shock” to a large firm. This...

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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part Two

Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca In our previous post, we presented evidence suggesting that labor market indicators provide the most reliable information for dating the U.S. business cycle. In this post, we further develop the case. In fact, the unemployment rate has provided an almost perfect record of distinguishing the beginning of recessions in the post-war U.S. economy. We also show that using more granular labor market data, such as by region or...

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Charging into Adulthood: Credit Cards and Young Consumers

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2019. Total household debt balances grew by $193 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a $601 billion increase in household debt balances in 2019, the largest annual gain since 2007. The main driver was a $433 billion annual upswing in mortgage balances,...

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Reading the Tea Leaves of the U.S. Business Cycle—Part One

Richard Crump, Domenico Giannone, and David Lucca The study of the business cycle—fluctuations in aggregate economic activity between times of widespread expansion and contraction—is one of the foremost pursuits in macroeconomics. But even distinguishing periods of expansion and recession can be challenging. In this post, we discuss different conceptual approaches to dating the business cycle, study their past performance for the U.S. economy, and highlight the informativeness of...

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The Affordable Care Act and For-Profit Colleges

Rajashri Chakrabarti and Maxim Pinkovskiy Getting health insurance in America is intimately connected to choosing whether and where to work. Therefore, it should not be surprising that the U.S. health insurance market may influence, and be influenced by, the market for higher education—which itself is closely tied to the labor market. In this post, and the staff report it is based on, we investigate the effects of the largest overhaul of health insurance in the United States in...

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Have the Risk Profiles of Large U.S. Bank Holding Companies Changed?

Ricardo Correa, Linda Goldberg, and Kevin Lai After the global financial crisis, regulatory changes were implemented to support financial stability, with some changes directly addressing capital and liquidity in bank holding companies (BHCs) and others targeting BHC size and complexity. Although the overall size of the largest U.S. BHCs has not decreased since the crisis, the organizational complexity of these same organizations has declined, with less notable changes being...

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How Does Tick Size Affect Treasury Market Quality?

Michael Fleming, Giang Nguyen, and Francisco Ruela The popularity of U.S. Treasury securities as a means of pricing other securities, managing interest rate risk, and storing value is, in part, due to the efficiency and liquidity of the U.S. Treasury market. Any structural changes that might affect these attributes of the market are therefore of interest to market participants and policymakers alike. In this post, we consider how a 2018 change in the minimum price increment, or tick...

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How Does Information Affect Liquidity in Over-the-Counter Markets?

Michael Lee and Antoine Martin A large volume of financial transactions occur in decentralized markets that commonly depend on a network of dealers. Dealers face two impediments to providing liquidity in these markets. First, dealers may face informed traders. Second, they may face costs associated with maintaining large balance sheets, either due to inventory or liquidity costs. In a recent paper, we study a model of over-the-counter (OTC) markets in which liquidity is endogenously...

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What’s in A(AA) Credit Rating?

Nina Boyarchenko and Or Shachar Rising nonfinancial corporate business leverage, especially for riskier “high-yield” firms, has recently received increased public and supervisory scrutiny. For example, the Federal Reserve’s May 2019 Financial Stability Report notes that “growth in business debt has outpaced GDP for the past 10 years, with the most rapid growth in debt over recent years concentrated among the riskiest firms.” At the upper end of the credit spectrum,...

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