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New York Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

Who Is More Likely to Default on Student Loans?

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Nicole Gorton, Michelle Jiang, and Wilbert van der Klaauw This post seeks to understand how educational characteristics (school type and selectivity, graduation status, major) and family background relate to the incidence of student loan default. Student indebtedness has grown substantially, increasing by 170 percent between 2006 and 2016. In addition, the fraction of students who default on those loans has grown considerably. Of...

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The Low Volatility Puzzle: Is This Time Different?

David Lucca, Daniel Roberts, and Peter Van Tassel As stock market volatility hovers near all-time lows, some analysts are questioning whether investors are complacent, drawing an analogy to the lead-up to the financial crisis. But, is this time different? We follow up on our previous post by investigating the persistence of low volatility periods. Historically, realized stock market volatility is persistent and mean-reverting: low volatility today predicts slightly higher, but...

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Just Released: Auto Lending Keeps Pace as Delinquencies Mount in Auto Finance Sector

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Total household debt increased by $116 billion to reach $12.96 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit released today by the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. Household debt has been growing since mid-2013, boosted in part by steady growth in auto loan balances, which have grown for twenty-six consecutive quarters thanks to...

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The Low Volatility Puzzle: Are Investors Complacent?

David Lucca, Daniel Roberts, and Peter Van Tassel In recent months, some analysts and policymakers have raised concerns about the unusually low level of stock market volatility. For example, in the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes “a few participants expressed concern that subdued market volatility, coupled with a low equity premium, could lead to a buildup of risks to financial stability.” In this post, we review this concern and find the evidence on investor...

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Understanding Permanent and Temporary Income Shocks

Fatih Karahan, Sean Mihaljevich, and Laura Pilossoph The earnings of 200 million U.S. workers change each year for various reasons. Some of these changes are anticipated while others are more unexpected. Although many of these changes may be due to pleasant surprises—such as receiving salary raises and promotions—others involve disappointments—such as falling into unemployment. Arguably, some of these factors have rather short-lived effects on an individual’s...

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Mission Almost Impossible: Developing a Simple Measure of Pass-Through Efficiency

Gara Afonso, Adam Biesenbach, and Thomas Eisenbach Short-term credit markets have evolved significantly over the past ten years in response to unprecedentedly high levels of reserve balances, a host of regulatory changes, and the introduction of new monetary policy tools. Have these and other developments affected the way monetary policy shifts “pass through” to money markets and, ultimately, to households and firms? In this post, we discuss a new measure of...

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What Explains Shareholder Payouts by Large Banks?

Beverly Hirtle On June 28, the Federal Reserve released the latest results of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the supervisory program that assesses the capital adequacy and capital planning processes of large, complex banking companies. The Fed did not object to any of the banks’ capital plans, an outcome that was widely heralded as a signal that these banks would be able to increase payouts to their shareholders. And in fact, immediately following the release...

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Discretionary Services Spending Has Finally Made It Back (to 2007)

Jonathan McCarthy The current economic expansion is now the third-longest expansion in U.S. history (based on National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] dating of U.S. business cycles). Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2.1 percent annual rate—has been extraordinarily weak. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in...

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Upstate New York’s Expansion Is Losing Steam

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz All in all, the upstate New York economy fared pretty well during the last business cycle. Job losses were less severe in upstate New York during the Great Recession than they were for the nation as a whole, which was quite unusual. And once the jobs recovery began in 2010, employment in upstate New York started to grow again, though at a pace well below the nation’s. The result of this slow but steady recovery was that by mid-2015,...

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Just Released: New York Fed Markets Data Dashboard

Antoine Martin, Susan McLaughlin, and Jordan Pollinger The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases data on a number of market operations, reference rates, monetary policy expectations, and Federal Reserve securities portfolio holdings. These data are released at different times, for different types of securities or rates, and for different audiences. In an effort to bring this information together in a single, convenient location, the New York Fed developed the Markets Data...

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