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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

Will New Steel Tariffs Protect U.S. Jobs?

Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and Noah Kwicklis President Trump announced a new tariff of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum imports on March 8, 2018. One objective of these tariffs is to protect jobs in the U.S. steel industry. They were introduced under a rarely used 1962 Act, which allows the government to impose trade barriers for national security reasons. Although the tariffs were initially to apply to all trading partners, Canada and Mexico are...

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Just Released: Is Housing a Good Investment? Where You Stand Depends on Where You Sit

Andreas Fuster, Andrew Haughwout, Nima Dahir, and Michael Neubauer Home price growth expectations remained stable relative to last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2018 SCE Housing Survey. Respondents expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year, and perhaps as a result, the share of owners who expect to refinance their mortgages over the next year declined slightly. In addition, homeowners view themselves as more likely to make investments in...

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Is Stigma Attached to the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility?

Helene Lee and Asani Sarkar The European Central Bank (ECB)’s marginal lending facility has been used by banks to borrow funds both in normal times and during the crisis that started in 2007. In this post, we argue that how a central bank communicates the purpose of a facility is important in determining how users of the facility are perceived. In particular, the ECB never refers to the marginal lending facility as a back-up source of funds. The ECB’s neutral approach may be a key...

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How Will the New Tax Law Affect Homeowners in High Tax States? It Depends

Richard W. Peach, Gizem Kosar, and Nicole Gorton Editor's note: This post has been corrected to reflect that the limit on itemized deductions of state and local taxes for individuals is now $10,000, not $5,000, as originally stated. The error did not affect the authors’ conclusions as they analyzed the impact of the new tax code with respect to a married couple. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) introduces significant changes to the federal income tax code for...

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Vulnerable Growth

Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone Traditional GDP forecasts potentially present an overly optimistic (or pessimistic) view of the state of the economy: by focusing on the point estimate for the conditional mean of growth, such forecasts ignore risks around the central forecast. Yet, policymakers around the world increasingly focus on risks to the central forecast in policy debates. For example, in the United States the Federal Open Market Committee...

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Do the Employed Get Better Job Offers?

R. Jason Faberman, Thomas Haasl, Andreas I. Mueller, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa In a previous post, we examined the job search behavior of workers, both on the job and while unemployed. We found that job seeking is pervasive among employed workers, and that searching while employed is more effective than searching while unemployed in producing employer contacts and job offers. But how do the offers received through “on the job” searches compare to those received while...

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Quantities and Prices during the Housing Bust

Sonia Gilbukh and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham The recent U.S. housing crisis featured explosive growth and collapse of house prices at the national level, with substantial boom-bust pattern variation at the local level. What is less commonly known in the housing market is the behavior of housing quantities. While measures of supply and inventory play an important role in understanding markets, quantity data in housing is traditionally limited to national aggregates. Using a rich new...

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Do Expansions in Health Insurance Affect Student Loan Outcomes?

Maya Bidanda, Rajashri Chakrabarti, Sean Hundtofte, and Maxim Pinkovskiy The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) is arguably the biggest policy intervention in health insurance in the United States since the passage of Medicaid and Medicare in 1965. The Act was signed into law in March 2010, and by 2016 approximately 20 to 24 million additional Americans were covered with health insurance. Such an extension of insurance coverage could affect not only medical...

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Dealer Trading and Positioning in Floating Rate Notes

Michael Fleming and Amanda Wahlers In January 2014, the U.S. Treasury Department made its first sale of floating rate notes (FRNs), securities whose coupon rates vary over time depending on the course of short-term rates. Now that a few years have passed, we have enough data to analyze dealer trading and positioning in FRNs. In this post, we assess the level of trading and positioning, concentration across issues, and auction cycle effects, comparing these properties to those of...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–March 2018

Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Abhi Gupta, and Pearl Li This post presents a quarterly update of the economic forecast generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe our forecast very briefly and highlight its change since November 2017. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting...

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