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New York Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

Online Estimation of DSGE Models

Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Edward Herbst, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Frank Schorfheide The estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models is a computationally demanding task. As these models change to address new challenges (such as household and firm heterogeneity, the lower bound on nominal interest rates, and occasionally binding financial constraints), they become even more complex and difficult to estimate—so much so that current estimation procedures...

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Are U.S. Tariffs Turning Vietnam into an Export Powerhouse?

Hunter Clark and Brendan Kelly The imposition of Section 301 tariffs on about half of China’s exports to the United States has coincided with a fall in imports from China and gains for other countries. The U.S.-China trade conflict also appears to be accelerating an ongoing shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to other emerging markets, particularly in Asia. Within the region, Vietnam is often cited as a clear beneficiary of these trends, a rising economy that could...

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Just Released: Mind the Gap in Delinquency Rates

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Total household debt balances increased by $192 billion in the second quarter of 2019, boosted primarily by a $162 billion gain in mortgage installment balances, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data (the mortgage installment balances exclude home equity lines of credit, which are reported separately and have...

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Does a Data Quirk Inflate China’s Travel Services Deficit?

Matthew Higgins, Thomas Klitgaard, and Anna Wong Chinese residents are increasingly traveling to see the rest of the world, logging a total of 162 million foreign visits in 2018, up from 57 million in 2010. Increased travel spending by Chinese residents is acting to reduce the country's trade surplus because such spending is counted as a services import. However, there appears to be a quirk in the Chinese data that results in a significant understatement of the offsetting...

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At the New York Fed: Research Conference on FinTech

Alan Basmajian, Brad Groarke, Vanessa Kargenian, Kimberley Liao, Erika Ota-Liedtke, Jesse Maniff, and Asani Sarkar Financial technology (“FinTech”) refers to the evolving intersection of financial services and technology. In March, the New York Fed hosted "The First New York Fed Research Conference on FinTech” to understand the implications of FinTech developments on issues that are relevant to the Fed’s mandates such as lending, payments, and regulation. In this post, we summarize...

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How Do Large Banks Manage Their Cash?

Jeffrey Levine and Asani Sarkar Second of two posts As the aggregate supply of reserves shrinks and large banks implement liquidity regulations, they may follow a variety of liquidity management strategies depending on their business models and the interest rate differences between alternative liquid instruments. For example, the banks may continue to hold large amounts of excess reserves or shift to Treasury or agency securities or shrink their balance sheets. In this post, we...

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Large Bank Cash Balances and Liquidity Regulations

Jeffrey Levine and Asani Sarkar Update (9 a.m.): An earlier version of this post transposed line labels in the first figure. The error has been corrected. First of two posts The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has recently communicated its aim to continue implementing monetary policy in a regime that maintains an ample supply of reserves, though with a significantly lower level of reserves than has prevailed in recent years. The liquidity needs of the largest U.S....

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Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15

Patrick Adams, Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, and Argia Sbordone The New York Fed Staff Nowcast has been running for over three years. Each Friday at 11:15 a.m., we publish our updated predictions for real GDP growth based on the data released each week. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the first estimate of GDP growth, we stop updating our nowcast and archive it. We maintain these archives as part of our Nowcasting Report on the New York Fed’s public...

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Did the Value of a College Degree Decline during the Great Recession?

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Michelle Jiang, and William Nober In an earlier post, we studied how educational attainment affects labor market outcomes and earnings inequality. In this post, we investigate whether these labor market effects were preserved across the last business cycle: Did students with certain types of educational attainment weather the recession better? Focusing on students’ labor market outcomes during 2003-14 (a period that spans both a boom and a bust), we hope...

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From Policy Rates to Market Rates—Untangling the U.S. Dollar Funding Market

Gara Afonso, Fabiola Ravazzolo, and Alessandro Zori How do changes in the rate that the Federal Reserve pays on reserves held by depository institutions affect rates in money markets in which the Fed does not participate? Through which channels do changes in the so-called administered rates reach rates in onshore and offshore U.S. dollar money markets? In this post, we answer these questions with the help of an interactive map that guides us through the web of interconnected...

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