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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its...

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How COVID-19 Affected First-Time Homebuyers

Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy Efforts in the spring of 2020 to contain the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a sharp contraction in U.S. economic growth and an unprecedented, rapid rise in unemployment. While the first wave of the pandemic slowed the spring housing market, home sales rebounded sharply over the rest of the year, with strong gains in house prices. Given the rising house prices and continuing high unemployment, concerns arose that COVID-19 may have negatively affected...

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An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks

Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koşar, and Wilbert van der Klaauw In October, we reported evidence on how households used their first economic impact payments, which they started to receive in mid-April 2020 as part of the CARES Act, and how they expected to use a second stimulus payment. In this post, we exploit new survey data to examine how households used the second round of stimulus checks, issued starting at the end of December 2020 as part of the Coronavirus...

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Do People View Housing as a Good Investment and Why?

Andrew Haughwout, Haoyang Liu, Dean Parker, and Xiaohan Zhang Housing represents the largest asset owned by most households and is a major means of wealth accumulation, particularly for the middle class. Yet there is limited understanding of how households view housing as an investment relative to financial assets, in part because of their differences beyond the usual risk and return trade-off. Housing offers households an accessible source of leverage and a commitment device for...

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“Excess Savings” Are Not Excessive

Florin Bilbiie, Gauti Eggertsson, Giorgio Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti How will the U.S. economy emerge from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic? Will it struggle to return to prior levels of employment and activity, or will it come roaring back as soon as vaccinations are widespread and Americans feel comfortable travelling and eating out? Part of the answer to these questions hinges on what will happen to the large amount of “excess savings” that U.S. households have...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2021

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Shlok Goyal, Alissa Johnson, and Andrea Tambalotti This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model projects solid growth over the next two years, with core inflation slowly rising toward 2 percent. Uncertainty for both output and inflation forecasts remains large. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast...

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Register Now: Rethinking Heath & Healthcare in the United States

To register for this virtual event, visit nyfed.org/apr7event. On April 7, 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in association with The International Society for Urban Health, is sponsoring an event on the social determinants of health, with a focus on health equity issues. The COVID-19 crisis has revealed racial and economic disparities in baseline health, access to quality healthcare, and health outcomes in the U.S. and internationally. For example, Johns Hopkins University of...

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Who Pays What First? Debt Prioritization during the COVID Pandemic

William J. Arnesen, Jacob Conway, and Matthew Plosser Since the depths of the Great Recession, household debt has increased from a low of $11 trillion in 2013 to more than $14 trillion in 2020 (see the New York Fed Household Debt and Credit Report). In this post, we examine how consumers’ repayment priorities have evolved over that time. Specifically, we seek to answer the following question: When consumers repay some but not all of their loans, which types do they choose to keep...

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Reasonable Seasonals? Seasonal Echoes in Economic Data after COVID-19

David Lucca and Jonathan Wright Seasonal adjustment is a key statistical procedure underlying the creation of many economic series. Large economic shocks, such as the 2007-09 downturn, can generate lasting seasonal echoes in subsequent data. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we discuss the prospects for these echo effects after last year’s sharp economic contraction by focusing on the payroll employment series published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We note that...

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Did Dealers Fail to Make Markets during the Pandemic?

Jiakai Chen, Haoyang Liu, David Rubio, Asani Sarkar, and Zhaogang Song In March 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted a range of financial markets, the ability of dealers to maintain liquid conditions in these markets was questioned. Reflecting these concerns, authorities took numerous steps, including providing regulatory relief to dealers. In this post, we examine liquidity provision by dealers in several financial markets during the pandemic: how much was provided, possible...

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