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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

Cryptocurrencies, Tariffs, “Too Big to Fail,” and Other Top LSE Posts of 2018

Trevor Delaney “Cryptocurrency” hit the cultural mainstream in 2018. In March, Merriam-Webster added “cryptocurrency” to the dictionary, and in what was perhaps a greater litmus test of pop culture recognition, “bitcoin” was added to the official Scrabble dictionary in September. With such a surge in interest, it’s not too surprising that the most viewed post on Liberty Street Economics this past year focused on an issue surrounding how digital currencies operate that is not often...

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Price Impact of Trades and Limit Orders in the U.S. Treasury Securities Market

Michael Fleming, Bruce Mizrach, and Giang Nguyen It’s long been known that asset prices respond not only to public information, such as macroeconomic announcements, but also to private information revealed through trading. More recently, with the growth of high-frequency trading, academics have argued that limit orders—orders to buy or sell a security at a specific price or better—also contain information. In this post, we examine the information content of trades and limit orders in...

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Just Released: Interactive R-star Charts

Anna Snider With the arrival of Bank President John Williams from the San Francisco Fed, we’re now running—and sharing the output of—models he helped develop to obtain estimates of the natural rate of interest, or r-star, for the United States and other advanced economies. In the models’ definition, r-star is the real interest rate that allows an economy to expand in line with its underlying potential while keeping inflation stable. As our sister Reserve bank did in prior...

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Just Released: Labor Markets in the Region Are Exceptionally Tight

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Jonathan Hastings At today’s economic press briefing, we examined labor market conditions across our District, which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, and Fairfield County, Connecticut, as well as Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As has been true throughout the expansion, New York City remains an engine of job growth, while employment gains have been more moderate in Northern New Jersey and fairly sluggish across...

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Just Released: A Closer Look at Recent Tightening in Consumer Credit

Olivier Armantier, Joelle Scally, Kyle Smith, and Wilbert van der Klaauw The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released results today from its October 2018 SCE Credit Access Survey, which provides information on consumers' experiences with and expectations about credit demand and credit access. The survey is fielded every four months and was previously fielded in June. The latest survey shows a decline in application rates for credit over the previous twelve...

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Breaking Down TRACE Volumes Further

Doug Brain, Michiel De Pooter, Dobrislav Dobrev, Michael Fleming, Peter Johansson, Frank Keane, Michael Puglia, Tony Rodrigues, and Or Shachar Following an earlier joint FEDS Note and Liberty Street Economics blog post that examined aggregate trading volume in the Treasury cash market across venues, this post looks at volume across security type, seasoned-ness (time since issuance), and maturity. The analysis, which again relies on transactions recorded in the Financial...

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Is the United States Relying on Foreign Investors to Fund Its Larger Budget Deficit?

Thomas Klitgaard and Linda Wang The federal tax cut and the increase in federal spending at the beginning of 2018 substantially increased the government deficit, requiring a jump in the amount of Treasury securities needed to fund the gap. One question is whether the government will have to rely on foreign investors to buy these securities. Data for the first half of 2018 are available and, so far, the country has not had to increase the pace of borrowing from abroad. The current...

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The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift: More Recent Evidence

David Lucca and Emanuel Moench We had previously documented large excess returns on equities ahead of scheduled announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy-making body—between 1994 and 2011. This post updates our original analysis with more recent data. We find evidence of continued large excess returns during FOMC meetings, but only for those featuring a press conference by the Chair of the FOMC. Prior Findings Our New York...

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"Skin in the Game," Depositor Discipline, and Bank Risk Taking

Haelim Anderson, Daniel Barth, and Dong Beom Choi In a previous post, we argued that double liability for bank owners might not limit their risk taking, despite the extra “skin in the game,” if it also weakens depositor discipline of banks. This post, drawing on our recent working paper, looks at the interplay of those opposing forces in the late 1920s when bank liability differed across states. We find that double liability may have reduced the outflow of deposits during the crisis,...

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Just Released: A Look at Borrowing, Repayment, and Bankruptcy Rates by Age

Andrew Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Joelle Scally, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Household debt balances increased in the third quarter of 2018, a seventeenth consecutive increase. Total debt balances reached $13.51 trillion, a level more than 20 percent above the trough reached in 2013, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data. With today’s report we begin publishing a new set of charts...

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