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New York Fed
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York was incorporated in May 1914 and opened for business in November later that year. To commemorate the New York Fed’s centennial, take a look at the people and events that helped shape our history.

New York Fed

Fight the Pandemic, Save the Economy: Lessons from the 1918 Flu

Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked urgent questions about the impact of pandemics, and associated countermeasures, on the real economy. Policymakers are in uncharted territory, with little guidance on what the expected economic fallout will be and how the crisis should be managed. In this blog post, we use insights from a recent research paper to discuss two sets of questions. First, what are the real economic effects of a pandemic—and...

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How Does Credit Access Affect Job-Search Outcomes and Sorting?

Kyle Herkenhoff and Gordon Phillips How does access to consumer credit affect the job finding behavior of displaced workers? Are these workers looking for jobs at larger and more productive firms? What is the impact of consumer credit on the amount of time it takes to find a job? In recent work with Ethan Cohen-Cole we explore these questions by building a new data set of individual credit reports (from TransUnion) merged with administrative earnings data. We describe our approach...

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Searching for Higher Job Satisfaction

Gizem Kosar, Leo Goldman, and Kyle Smith Job-to-job transitions—those job moves that occur without an intervening spell of unemployment—have been discussed in the literature as a driver of wage growth. Economists typically describe the labor market as a “job ladder” that workers climb by moving to jobs with higher pay, stronger wage growth, and better benefits. It is important, however, that these transitions not be interspersed with periods of unemployment, both because such...

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Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experiences of U.S. Workers

René Chalom, Fatih Karahan, Brendan Moore, and Giorgio Topa The growth rate of hourly earnings is a widely used indicator to assess the economic progress of U.S. workers, as well as the health of the labor market. It is also a measure of wage pressures that could potentially spill over into inflationary pressures in a tightening labor market. Hourly earnings growth, on average, has gradually risen over the course of the current expansion, under way since the end of the Great...

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Women Have Been Hit Hard by the Loss of Routine Jobs, Too

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz Technological change and globalization have caused a massive transformation in the U.S. economy. While creating new opportunities for many workers, these forces have eliminated millions of good-paying jobs, particularly routine jobs in the manufacturing sector. Indeed, a great deal of attention has focused on the consequences of the loss of blue-collar production jobs for prime‑age men. What is often overlooked, however, is that...

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Introduction to Heterogeneity Series II: Labor Market Outcomes

Rajashri Chakrabarti While average outcomes serve as important yardsticks for how the economy is doing, understanding heterogeneity—how outcomes vary across a population—is key to understanding both the whole picture and the implications of any given policy. Following our six-part look at heterogeneity in October 2019, we now turn our focus to heterogeneity in the labor market—the subject of four posts set for release tomorrow morning. Average labor market statistics mask a lot of...

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Did Subprime Borrowers Drive the Housing Boom?

James Conklin, W. Scott Frame, Kristopher Gerardi, and Haoyang Liu Editor’s note: When this post was first published, the chart labels for “Non-Boom Counties” was incorrect; the labels have been corrected. (February 26, 12:00 pm) The role of subprime mortgage lending in the U.S. housing boom of the 2000s is hotly debated in academic literature. One prevailing narrative ascribes the unprecedented home price growth during the mid-2000s to an expansion in mortgage lending to subprime...

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Understanding Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Models: Insights from a PRANK

Sushant Acharya and Keshav Dogra In recent years there has been a lot of interest in the effect of income inequality (heterogeneity) on the economy, from both academics and policymakers. Researchers have developed Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models that incorporate heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic risk into the New Keynesian models that have become a cornerstone of monetary policy analysis. This research has argued that heterogeneity and idiosyncratic risk change...

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At the New York Fed: Fourteenth Annual Joint Conference with NYU-Stern on Financial Intermediation

Kristian Blickle, Anna Kovner, and Shivram Viswanathan An understanding of the developments in financial intermediation is critical to the efforts of the New York Fed to promote financial stability and economic growth. In line with this mission, the Bank recently hosted the fourteenth annual Federal Reserve Bank of New York-New York University Stern School of Business Conference on Financial Intermediation. As in years past, the conference attracted a large number of academics and...

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Firm-Level Shocks and GDP Growth: The Case of Boeing’s 737 MAX Production Pause

Julian di Giovanni Large firms play an integral role in aggregate economic activity owing to their size and production linkages. Events specific to these large firms can thus have significant effects on the macroeconomy. Quantifying these effects is tricky, however, given the complexity of the production process and the difficulty in identifying firm-level events. The recent pause in Boeing’s 737 MAX production is a striking example of such an event or “shock” to a large firm. This...

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