Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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What QE means for the world: Positive-sum currency wars

2013-02-15

Brazil’s finance minister coined the term “currency wars” in 2010 to describe how the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing was pushing up other countries’ currencies. Headline writers and policy makers have resurrected the phrase to describe the Japanese government and central bank’s pursuit of a much more aggressive monetary policy, motivated in part by the strength of the yen.The clear implication of the term “war” is that these policies are...

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves. They are Both the Same Concept

target2 balances vs. snb reserves germany spain greece austria finland italy

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

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Franc-ly we’re delighted, said the SNB

2013-01-17

by David Keohane

2013-01-17

Here’s the Swiss franc at its weakest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank put its cap into place in September 2011: The euro hit SFr1.2485 on Thursday, up 3.3 per cent since the 10th of January and back to levels not seen since May 2...

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SNB Profit 6 Billion CHF over the Year, 10.9 Billion Loss in Q4/2012

2013-01-17

by George Dorgan

2013-01-17

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a profit of around 6 billion francs for the year 2012 (full statement). The profit was reduced from 16.9 billion francs between Q1 and Q3 2012, which means that in Q4/2012 the bank had a loss of around 10.9 billion francs. The profit in gold fell from 6.2 billion …

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The wonders of the FX universe

2013-01-11

by Izabella Kaminska

2013-01-11

Dark matter may more commonly be associated with physics, space exploration and Professor Brian Cox, but, according to Deutsche Bank’s FX strategist George Saravelos, there’s a good chance that it’s becoming a recognisable force in the world of forei...

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Yearly Swiss Doomsaying and Swissmem’s Control over the Swiss National Bank

2013-01-11

by George Dorgan

2013-01-11

The same as every year in December/January: Swiss media and economists are doomsaying. This time they claim that the banking industry and the UBS job losses will bring Switzerland into trouble. Once again they do not understand that the Great Recession was only to a small part a banking crisis, but it was mostly a … Continue reading »

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The Big Swiss Faustian Bargain: Differences between SNB, ECB and Fed Money Printing Explained

Potential losses due to money printing are for the Fed: 1.2% of GDP, Bundesbank: 5% of GDP, SNB: 12% of GDP.

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Why the SNB will not Imitate Hong Kong, but Potentially Singapore

The SNB will not be able to realize a fixed currency peg over the long-term. The consequence would be that Switzerland loses its competitive advantage, lower Swiss rates, if it follow euro inflation.

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Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis EUR/CHF and Fundamental Background

Upcoming SNB Events

The link gives an overview about the upcoming SNB events.

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History of SNB monetary policy assessments vs. economic data

Development of Swiss GDP vs. GNI Gross National Income Gross Domestic Product

History of SNB monetary policy assessments vs. the Swiss gross national product (GDP) and gross national income (GNI).

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Because They Knew What They Were Doing: The Parallels between European and SNB Leaders

Similarly as European leaders knew what they were doing with the euro, namely introducing a not feasible currency, Swiss National Bank did between 2005 and 2008, namely the absolutely wrong thing.

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Correlations Between the Swiss Franc, Gold and the German Economy

2012-12-21

by George Dorgan

2012-12-21

In yesterday’s post we focused on several economic events that weakened the position of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). In this extended replacement post, we give several reasons for recent movements in the gold price and explain the correlation between German economic data, gold and the Swiss franc. IFO data shows that Germany will not …

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SNB Losses: 1.85 Billion Francs in Just One Day, 231 Francs, 250$ per Inhabitant

2012-12-18

by George Dorgan

2012-12-18

After the disappointing US current account data, traders have realized which countries have strong trade balances, namely Germany and Switzerland (see here for our details on the ever rising Swiss trade surplus), additionally fueled the good German IFO data. Both the euro and the Swissie strongly rose against the dollar. Due to Abe’s pressure on the …

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SNB Monetary Policy Assessment December 2012: (Nearly) Full Text

2012-12-14

by George Dorgan

2012-12-14

snb monetary policy assessment december 2012 jordan danthine zurbrügg

The SNB decided to maintain the floor at 1.20 and the Libor target between 0% and 0.25%. As we expected in our outlook on the assessment, there were still important downwards drivers of inflation after the strong appreciation of the franc. Therefore, the SNB has moved its inflation expectations downwards for 2013 to minus 0.1% …

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Warum die SNB nicht Hongkong, sondern Singapur imitieren wird

2012-12-11

by George Dorgan

2012-12-11

Im Gegensatz zu Hongkong mit dem USD/HKD-Peg kann die Schweiz ein Currency Board, einen fixen Kurs zum Euro nicht für Jahre durchhalten. Die Gründe auf snbchf.com

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‘Negative’ has such unfairly negative connotations

2012-12-11

by David Keohane

2012-12-11

Dear people, ATTENTION: HEAD OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS/NETWORKMANAGEMENT/TREASURY AND/OR CASH MANAGEMENT FURTHER TO OUR SWIFT DATED 26 08 2011 PLEASE BE INFORMED THAT DUE TO THE CONTINUED PREVAILING MARKET SITUATION AFFECTING THE SWISS FRANC, WE HAVE...

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How Currency Speculators Help the SNB to Fight against Ordinary Investors

2012-12-05

by George Dorgan

2012-12-05

A discussion in the investor forum made clear how currency speculators currently help the SNB to maintain the floor against normal investors. A situation that was different in August/September 2011, when the SNB had to fight against these speculators. A discussion in the investor forum Seeking Alpha: part one Based on our analysis of …

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Jim Rogers, 2012: When Will the Peg Fall? Will Switzerland Become Bulgaria?

2012-12-03

by George Dorgan

2012-12-03

Given that most farmers are rather old, he says that the world should be very grateful to speculators that bet on food prices, this helps to obtain the required younger farmers. Jim Rogers has exchanged all his euros into francs, he thinks that the EUR/CHF peg will fall soon. Tagesanzeiger (

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