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The Slope of the US Yield Curve and Risks to Growth

By Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel and Fabio Natalucci The slope of the yield curve in the US has inverted in recent months, making long-term debt significantly cheaper than short-term debt. This inversion is a gauge of investors’ confidence in the economy and signals doubts about future growth. The slope of the Treasury yield curve is the difference between the interest rate on long-term and short-term debt; and each time the curve inverts, there are questions about the reliability of the...

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