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Tag Archives: Advanced Economies

Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Русский In the October World Economic Outlook, we described the global economy as in a synchronized slowdown, with escalating downside risks that could further derail growth. Since then, some risks have partially receded with the announcement of a US-China Phase I trade deal and lower likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Monetary policy has continued to support growth and buoyant financial conditions. With these developments, there are now...

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New Data on World Debt: A Dive into Country Numbers

By Marialuz Moreno Badia and Paolo Dudine Español, Português The new update of the IMF’s Global Debt Database shows that total global debt (public plus private) reached US$188 trillion at the end of 2018, up by US$3 trillion when compared to 2017. The global average debt-to-GDP ratio (weighted by each country’s GDP) edged up to 226 percent in 2018, 1½ percentage points above the previous year. Although this was the smallest annual increase in the global debt ratio since 2004, a closer look...

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All the Way to the Top: Industrial Policy, Innovation, and Sustained Growth

By Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov The odds of poor or middle-income countries achieving the stardom of the “Asian Miracles” within a generation or two, or even three, are small. Between 1960 and 2014, only 16 developing economies worldwide were able to vault into high-income status, and many of those were fortunate enough to have discovered oil or join the European Union. The “miracles”—such as Hong Kong SAR, Korea, and Singapore—as well as Japan, Germany, and the United States before them,...

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A Map of Inequality in Countries

By William Gbohoui, Raphael Lam, and Victor Lledo Social and economic inequality between and within regions in countries is rising in many advanced economies and is now at the forefront of the policy debate because of perceptions that some people and places have been left behind. Changes in global trade and technology have shifted jobs and industries on the map, but the economic gains within countries are not well shared. One might think the solution is for people to move in search of...

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Lower for Longer: Rising Vulnerabilities May Put Growth at Risk

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Português, 日本語, Русский The pace of global economic activity remains weak, and financial markets expect rates to stay lower for longer than anticipated in early 2019. Financial conditions have eased even more, helping contain downside risks and support the global economy in the near term. But loose financial conditions come at a cost: they encourage investors to take more chances in a quest for higher returns, so risks to...

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How To Reignite Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By Romain Duval and Davide Furceri عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский Emerging markets and developing economies have enjoyed good growth over the past two decades. But many countries are still not catching up with the living standards of advanced economies. At current growth rates, it would take more than 50 years for a typical emerging market economy to close half of its current income gap in living standards, and 90 years for a typical developing economy. Our research...

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chart of the weekFuel for Thought: Ditch the Subsidies

By IMFBlog Pensions, education, healthcare, better infrastructure, technology, and climate change: fiscal policymakers have their work cut out for them on many fronts.  Whether you live in a rapidly aging advanced economy,  or a low-income or emerging market economy with a young, booming population, all these issues matter for you.  As the Fiscal Monitor in April 2019 shows, government policies on taxes and spending have to adapt and should shift to growth-enhancing investment.  This means,...

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US Business Investment: Rising Market Power Mutes Tax Cut Impact

By Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh, and Suchanan Tambunlertchai US business investment has been on the rise. Since the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at the end of 2017, US businesses have bought more machinery, developed software, and created new intellectual property. Some believe that the key to this growth in business investment has been the Act’s cut to the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent, which lowered the cost of capital. Lower capital costs could, at least...

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Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing...

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Rebalancing the Global Economy: Some Progress but Challenges Ahead

By Gita Gopinath Español, 日本語 Following the global financial crisis, overall current account surpluses and deficits fell sharply from about 6 percent of global GDP in 2007 to about 3.5 percent in 2013. Since then, as shown in our new External Sector Report, global current account imbalances have declined only slightly to 3 percent of world GDP in 2018, while rotating toward advanced economies and away from emerging economies, including China whose current account is now broadly in line with...

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