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Tag Archives: developing economies

Managing Divergent Recoveries

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is...

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The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

By Kristalina Georgieva عربي, Español, 日本語, Русский  As G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet virtually this week, the world continues to climb back from the worst recession in peacetime since the Great Depression. The IMF recently projected global GDP growth at 5.5 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2022. But it is going to be a long and uncertain ascent. Most of the world is facing a slow rollout of vaccines even as new virus mutations are spreading—and the prospects for...

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Why Climate Change Vulnerability Is Bad for Sovereign Credit Ratings

By Serhan Cevik and João Tovar Jalles عربي, 中文, Español, Русский  Climate change has made the world a riskier place. The destruction wrought by heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, and coastal flooding doesn’t stop with the toll on human lives and livelihoods—it can also have deep consequences for a country’s finances. Recent IMF staff research has found that a country’s vulnerability or resilience to climate change can have a direct effect on its creditworthiness, its costs of borrowing, and,...

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Government Support Is Vital as Countries Race to Vaccinate

By Vitor Gaspar, Raphael Lam, Paolo Mauro, and Mehdi Raissi عربي, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating in many countries and uncertainty is unusually high. Decisive government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine rollouts, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. Most countries will need to do more with less, considering the increasingly tight budget...

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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語,  Português, Русский  In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination drives. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and...

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How Artificial Intelligence Could Widen the Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations

By Cristian Alonso, Siddharth Kothari, and Sidra Rehman  Español New technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, big data, and networks are expected to revolutionize production processes, but they could also have a major impact on developing economies. The opportunities and potential sources of growth that, for example, the United States and China enjoyed during their early stages of economic development are remarkably different from what Cambodia and Tanzania are...

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Window for Change

By Gita Bhatt There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. This saying could not be more apt today. The pandemic—which has disrupted the world in profound ways—has prompted countries to roll out significant policy changes that might otherwise have taken years. It has also sped the arrival of technologies and new ways of working and learning, moving us almost overnight into a new era. For many professionals, working from home has become easier. Yet for...

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Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, Русский  The COVID-19 pandemic pushed economies into a Great Lockdown, which helped contain the virus and save lives, but also triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Over 75 percent of countries are now reopening at the same time as the pandemic is intensifying in many emerging market and developing economies. Several countries have started to recover. However, in the absence of a medical solution, the strength of the recovery...

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Migration to Advanced Economies Can Raise Growth

By Philipp Engler, Margaux MacDonald, Roberto Piazza, and Galen Sher عربي, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  Migration has been the focus of intense political debate in recent years. While most people have positive perceptions about immigrants, there are misconceptions and concerns. For instance, some think that migrants are a burden on economies. Our new study in Chapter 4 of the April 2020 World Economic Outlook looks at the economic impact of migration on recipient countries...

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Courage under Fire: Policy Responses in Emerging Market and Developing Economies to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Martin Mühleisen, Vladimir Klyuev, Sarah Sanya The coronavirus crisis is a crisis like no other, and for emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), it has triggered a policy response like no other, both in scope and magnitude. Despite their diversity, and in some cases, strained resources, this large group of countries—consisting of emerging markets and low-income countries—have bolstered the provision of health services and extended unprecedented support to households, firms, and...

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