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Tag Archives: euro area

The Overnight Drift in U.S. Equity Returns

Nina Boyarchenko, Lars C. Larsen, and Paul Whelan Since the advent of electronic trading in the late 1990s, S&P 500 futures have traded close to 24 hours a day. In this post, which draws on our recent Staff Report, we document that holding U.S. equity futures overnight has earned a large positive return during the opening hours of European markets. The largest positive returns in the 1998–2019 sample have accrued between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. U.S. Eastern time—the opening of European...

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The Overnight Drift in U.S. Equity Returns

Nina Boyarchenko, Lars C. Larsen, and Paul Whelan Since the advent of electronic trading in the late 1990s, S&P 500 futures have traded close to 24 hours a day. In this post, which draws on our recent Staff Report, we document that holding U.S. equity futures overnight has earned a large positive return during the opening hours of European markets. The largest positive returns in the 1998–2019 sample have accrued between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m. U.S. Eastern time—the opening of European stock...

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What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its...

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What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?

Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic...

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Financial Conditions Have Eased, but Insolvencies Loom Large

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci عربي, Español, Français, 日本語 Amid the human tragedy and economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the recent surge in risk appetite in financial markets has caught analysts’ attention. After sharp declines in February and March, equity markets have rallied back, in some cases to close to their January levels, while credit spreads have narrowed significantly, even for riskier investments. This has created an apparent disconnect between financial...

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Europe’s COVID-19 Crisis and the Fund’s Response

This blog is part of a series providing regional analysis on the effects of the coronavirus. By Poul M. Thomsen عربي, 中文, 日本語, Русский COVID-19 has struck Europe with stunning ferocity. While we do not know how long the crisis will last, we know that the economic impact will be severe. In Europe’s major economies, nonessential services closed by government decree account for about one-third of output. This means that each month these sectors remain closed translates into a 3 percent drop...

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Monetary and Financial Stability During the Coronavirus Outbreak

By Tobias Adrian This blog is part of a special series on the response to the coronavirus. The global spread of the coronavirus is a human tragedy unfolding across the world. Quantifying the economic impact is complex, giving rise to significant uncertainty about the economic outlook and the associated downside risks. Such an abrupt rise in uncertainty can put both economic growth and financial stability at risk. In addition to targeted economic policies and fiscal measures, the right...

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Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing...

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Chart of the WeekMapping the World’s Financial Weak Spots

By IMFBlog Español, Português Where will the next financial crisis come from? The short answer is: We don’t know. We can, however, look for vulnerabilities in the system that, if left untreated, can develop into problems. What do we mean by a vulnerability? It is an area of weakness that can amplify and spread an unexpected economic shock, increasing the level of risk to the financial system. Imagine the impact of an earthquake on a house built on sand, as opposed to bedrock. In the...

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Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

By Shekhar Aiyar, John Bluedorn, and Romain Duval Español, Français, Português Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties. A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years. An...

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