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Tag Archives: euro area

Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing...

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Chart of the WeekMapping the World’s Financial Weak Spots

By IMFBlog Español, Português Where will the next financial crisis come from? The short answer is: We don’t know. We can, however, look for vulnerabilities in the system that, if left untreated, can develop into problems. What do we mean by a vulnerability? It is an area of weakness that can amplify and spread an unexpected economic shock, increasing the level of risk to the financial system. Imagine the impact of an earthquake on a house built on sand, as opposed to bedrock. In the...

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Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

By Shekhar Aiyar, John Bluedorn, and Romain Duval Español, Français, Português Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties. A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years. An...

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How to Help, Not Hinder Global Growth

By Christine Lagarde As the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors gather this week in Fukuoka, they can take inspiration from their host city. Known as Japan’s “startup city,” Fukuoka has flourished in recent decades by embracing trade, innovation, and openness. That spirit is needed more than ever to help reduce trade tensions and clear other stumbling blocks on the way back to higher and more sustainable growth. The goal must be to help, not stand in the way of global growth....

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Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several European countries, banks are overloaded with government bonds. In China, bank profitability is declining, and capital levels remain low at small and medium-size lenders. Vulnerabilities like these are on the rise across advanced and emerging market economies, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial...

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The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US–China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a...

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Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond. To get around...

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A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. The downward revisions are modest; however, we believe the risks to more significant...

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Five Actions to Strengthen the Euro Area Banking Union

By Atilla Arda, Daniel Hardy, and Maike B. Luedersen December 14, 2018 View of skyscrapers in the banking district in Frankfurt am Main, Germany: Progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen the euro area’s banking union (photo: imageBROKER/Stefan Ziese/Newscom) Dealing with problem banks in a prompt, efficient, and even-handed manner is essential for the European banking union. Much progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen both institutions...

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G20: Step Up to Boost Inclusive Growth

By Christine Lagarde November 28, 2018 عربي, 中文, Español, Português, Русский Puerto Madero harbor, Buenos Aires, Argentina: G20 countries will need to act swiftly and together to boost inclusive growth (photo: Florian Kopp imageBROKER/Newscom) As G20 leaders gather in Argentina, the global economy faces a critical juncture. We have had a good stretch of solid growth by historical standards, but now we are facing a period where significant risks are materializing and darker clouds are...

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