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Tag Archives: Forecasting

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2020

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Shlok Goyal, and Alissa Johnson This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2020. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall...

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Tracking the COVID-19 Economy with the Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

Daniel Lewis, Karel Mertens, and James Stock At the end of March, we launched the Weekly Economic Index (WEI) as a tool to monitor changes in real activity during the pandemic. The rapid deterioration in economic conditions made it important to assess developments as soon as possible, rather than waiting for monthly and quarterly data to be released. In this post, we describe how the WEI has measured the effects of COVID-19. So far in 2020, the WEI has synthesized daily and weekly data...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2020

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, and Reca Sarfati Editor’s note: The release of the March 2020 DSGE forecast was postponed as New York Fed economists shifted their focus to the COVID-19 pandemic. In conjunction with the release of the June 2020 forecast, we’ve decided to post the March 2020 forecast for the record as well. This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2020

Ozge Akinci, William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, and Reca Sarfati Editor’s note: The release of the March 2020 DSGE forecast was postponed as New York Fed economists shifted their focus to the COVID-19 pandemic. With the June 2020 forecast now out, we’ve decided to post this forecast for the record as well. This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We...

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What Do Financial Conditions Tell Us about Risks to GDP Growth?

Patrick Adams, Tobias Adrian, Nina Boyarchenko, Domenico Giannone, Nellie Liang, and Eric Qian The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has been sharp. Real U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2020 (advance estimate) was -4.8 percent at an annual rate, the worst since the global financial crisis in 2008. Most forecasters predict much weaker growth in the second quarter, ranging widely from an annual rate of -15 percent to -50 percent as the economy pauses to allow for...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—December 2019

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, Reca Sarfati, and Andrea Tambalotti This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—September 2019

Ozge Akinci, William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, and Reca Sarfati This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since June 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting...

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Just Released: Historical Reconstruction of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, 2002-15

Patrick Adams, Domenico Giannone, Eric Qian, and Argia Sbordone The New York Fed Staff Nowcast has been running for over three years. Each Friday at 11:15 a.m., we publish our updated predictions for real GDP growth based on the data released each week. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the first estimate of GDP growth, we stop updating our nowcast and archive it. We maintain these archives as part of our Nowcasting Report on the New York Fed’s public...

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The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—June 2019

Sushant Acharya, Michael Cai, Marco Del Negro, Ethan Matlin, and Reca Sarfati This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since January 2019. As usual, we wish to remind our readers that the DSGE model forecast is not an official New York Fed forecast, but only an input to the Research staff’s overall forecasting process....

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Who’s on First? Characteristics of First-Time Homebuyers

Donghoon Lee and Joseph Tracy HOUSING SERIES: Post 2 of 5 In our previous post, we presented a new measure of first-time homebuyers. In this post, we use this improved measure to describe the characteristics of first-time buyers and how those characteristics change over time. Having an accurate assessment of first-time buyers is important given that the aim of many housing policies is to support the transition from renting to owning. A proper assessment of these housing policies...

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