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Tag Archives: GDP

From Vaccines to V-Shaped Recovery in Europe

By Alfred Kammer Español, Français, Português One year into the pandemic, Europe finds itself at another turning point. New waves of infection are hitting the continent, requiring new lockdowns. But, unlike last year, safe and effective vaccines are now available. While the pace of vaccination is still slow, an end to the pandemic is in sight. Reflecting the periodic infection waves and the pace of vaccinations, the economic recovery in Europe is still halting and uneven. While industrial...

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Managing Divergent Recoveries

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed. Yet, even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic, a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible. Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is...

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Taming the Wave of Small and Medium Enterprise Insolvencies

by Federico J. Díez, Romain Duval, Chiara Maggi and Nicola Pierri Español The pandemic has hit small and medium enterprises particularly hard, partly because they are predominant in some contact-intensive sectors like hotels, restaurants, and entertainment. As a result, many advanced economies risk experiencing a wave of liquidations that could destroy millions of jobs, damage the financial system, and weaken an already fragile economic recovery. Policymakers should take novel and swift...

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Slow-Healing Scars: The Pandemic’s Legacy

By Sonali Das and Philippe Wingender عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский Recessions wreak havoc and the damage is often long-lived. Businesses shut down, investment spending is cut, and people out of work can lose skills and motivation as the months stretch on. But the recession brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic is no ordinary recession. Compared to previous global crises, the contraction was sudden and deep—using quarterly data, global output declined about three times as...

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The Great Divergence: A Fork in the Road for the Global Economy

By Kristalina Georgieva عربي, Español, 日本語, Русский  As G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet virtually this week, the world continues to climb back from the worst recession in peacetime since the Great Depression. The IMF recently projected global GDP growth at 5.5 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2022. But it is going to be a long and uncertain ascent. Most of the world is facing a slow rollout of vaccines even as new virus mutations are spreading—and the prospects for...

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Structural Factors and Central Bank Credibility Limit Inflation Risks

By Gita Gopinath After ending last year with unexpectedly strong vaccine success and hope that the pandemic and economic distress it caused would recede, we woke up to the reality of new virus variants and the unpredictable, winding road that it can lead the world down. Something similar has happened with the discourse on inflation. At the end of last year, after a historic collapse of the global economy estimated at -3.5 percent, inflation was below target in 84 percent of countries. This...

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Government Support Is Vital as Countries Race to Vaccinate

By Vitor Gaspar, Raphael Lam, Paolo Mauro, and Mehdi Raissi عربي, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating in many countries and uncertainty is unusually high. Decisive government actions are necessary to ensure swift and extensive vaccine rollouts, protect the most vulnerable households and otherwise viable firms, and foster a durable and inclusive recovery. Most countries will need to do more with less, considering the increasingly tight budget...

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A Race Between Vaccines and the Virus as Recoveries Diverge

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語,  Português, Русский  In just three months since we released our last forecast in October, recorded COVID-19 deaths have doubled to over 2 million, as new waves have lifted infections past previous peaks in many countries. In these same three months, multiple vaccines have seen unexpectedly strong success and some countries have started ambitious vaccination drives. Much now depends on the outcome of this race between a mutating virus and...

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COVID-19 Hits the Poor Harder, but Scaled-Up Testing Can Help

By Allan Dizioli, Michal Andrle, and John Bluedorn Español, Français, Português, Русский  Across the world, poor neighborhoods have experienced more COVID-19 infections and deaths than wealthier ones. The pandemic and the efforts to control it have disproportionately hurt the poor, both within and across countries. Gaining a better understanding of what accounts for the disparate health impacts across income groups can help to inform policymakers on what can be done about it. Unlike...

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How Artificial Intelligence Could Widen the Gap Between Rich and Poor Nations

By Cristian Alonso, Siddharth Kothari, and Sidra Rehman  Español New technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, big data, and networks are expected to revolutionize production processes, but they could also have a major impact on developing economies. The opportunities and potential sources of growth that, for example, the United States and China enjoyed during their early stages of economic development are remarkably different from what Cambodia and Tanzania are...

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