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Tag Archives: Global economy

A Capital Market Union for Europe: Why it’s Needed and How to Get There

By Ashok Vir Bhatia, Srobona Mitra, and Anke Weber When savers and firms invest and borrow beyond their national borders, they enjoy opportunities to diversify their portfolios and lower their funding costs, respectively. In Europe, this idea—of an integrated financial system that offers a richness of financing choice—remains an elusive goal: capital markets are far from integrated. Our recent research finds that European finance is still sharply segmented along national lines, with...

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New Index Tracks Trade Uncertainty Across the Globe

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri Español, Português Rising trade uncertainty is cited as a driving factor for “sluggish global growth” in the current issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which describes the state of the world economy. But how is trade uncertainty measured? How has it evolved over time? Are changes in trade uncertainty confined to specific countries and regions of the world? A new measure of trade uncertainty finds that by this measure of uncertainty...

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Back to School Blogs

By IMFBlog Trade wars and inverted yield curves do not typically top the charts of your summer, beach-friendly reading list. But summer in the Northern Hemisphere has disappeared as quickly as your last strawberry daquiri, right along with your ability to remember your computer password.  Trade wars and inverted yield curves do not typically top the charts of your summer reading list. Need a hand shifting gears?  We have put together a primer of our recent blogs, each a quick read, on...

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Illuminating Dark Corners of the Global Economy

Gita Bhatt This issue of Finance & Development reminds me of a Sufi parable. A woman sees a mystic searching for something outside his door. “What have you lost?” she asks. “My key,” he responds. So they both kneel down to look for it. “Where exactly did you drop it?” she asks after a few minutes. “In my house,” he replies. “Then why are you looking here?” “Because there is more light.” The lesson: we all search for answers where it is easiest to look. That is why we decided to shine a...

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Chart of the WeekTop 5 Charts of Summer

By IMFBlog Español, Português Our data nerds have been hard at work over the summer and we have taken a dive into the numbers beneath the surface of the daily headlines. Housing prices, powerful companies, corruption, and more have been on our sonar.   So you can catch up and learn more about the stories below the waterline, our editors have chosen the best from our Chart of the Week series on the blog over the past few months.  Housing prices, powerful companies, corruption, and more...

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Monitoring Global Financial Stability

By Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Nellie Liang, and Fabio Natalucci “It’s awful. Why did nobody see it coming?” asked Queen Elizabeth II in November 2008 during a visit to the London School of Economics, wondering why nobody had predicted the Global Financial Crisis. The bewilderment wasn’t unique to the British monarchy; across the world, many asked the same question. Ten years on, it remains difficult to forecast financial instability. However, progress is afoot to improve the understanding of...

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Taming the Currency Hype

By Gustavo Adler, Luis Cubeddu, and Gita Gopinath Escalating trade tensions are taking a toll on the global economy and are partly responsible for the recent downward revisions to our growth forecasts for 2019-20. Facing sluggish growth and below-target inflation, many advanced and emerging market economies have appropriately eased monetary policy, yet this has prompted concerns over so-called beggar-thy-neighbor policies and fears of a currency war. In this blog post, we discuss the...

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Chart of the WeekCanada’s Housing Market Slowdown

By IMFBlog Following a period of escalating prices, Canada’s housing market is cooling. Measures designed to strengthen financial stability such as more stringent tests of borrowers’ ability to repay their loans, along with higher interest rates, combined to make mortgage financing more expensive. As a result, residential mortgage credit slowed to just 3.4 percent annual growth in December 2018. Nationwide, house prices are 2.5 percent lower than the peak in mid-2018. This week’s chart of...

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Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: A Stalling Recovery

By Alejandro Werner Español Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean remains sluggish. Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2019—the slowest rate since 2016—before rising to 2.3 percent in 2020. The weak momentum reflects negative surprises in the first half of 2019, elevated domestic policy uncertainty in some large economies, heightened US-China trade tensions, and somewhat lower global growth. Elevated policy uncertainty in some large economies of the region has...

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chart of the weekUS$100 Bill on the Rise

By IMFBlog A curious thing has happened in US currency: the $100 bill recently overtook the ubiquitous $1 bill in circulation volume, for the first time in history. In other words, the most valuable banknote in the United States became the most widely circulated. As we show in our chart of the week, based on an article in the IMF’s Finance & Development magazine, there are more $100 bills circulating now than ever before, roughly doubling in volume since the global financial crisis....

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