Tag Archive: Interest rates
Blackout Of Buybacks Threatens Bullish Run
With the last half of March upon us, the blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. If you don’t understand the importance of corporate share buybacks and the blackout periods, here is a snippet of a 2023 article I previously wrote.
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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings
Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.
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Presidential Elections And Market Corrections
Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over the last two Presidential elections, where polarizing candidates trumped policies.
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Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution
Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track.
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Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud
Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average...
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US Dollar Offered Ahead of Employment Data after US 10-year Yield Set New Low for the Year
Overview: The dollar is offered ahead of today's US
jobs report, even though expectations are for solid if not spectacular jobs
growth of around 185k. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading
today's move, while the euro approached $1.09, which it has not traded above
this week. Sterling neared the lower end of its $1.26-$1.28 trading range
yesterday and set a new high for the week today, slightly above $1.2770. Emerging
market currencies...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Monetary Policy Is Hard
So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over?
The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors have had few places to hide. Of the major asset classes we follow closely, only two – gold and commodities – were higher by...
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Dollar Eases, Stocks and Bonds Advance
Overview: For the first time in more than a week,
North American dealers will take to their posts with the dollar softer against
all the G10 and most of the emerging market currencies. Despite stepped up
efforts by Chinese officials and a firmer yen, the yuan remains on the
defensive and is one of the handful of emerging market currencies softer on the
day. Stocks and bonds are mostly higher too. The yuan might not be benefitting
from a softer...
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Weekly Market Pulse: Look Up In The Sky! It’s A UFO! Or Not!
As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese “weather” balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven’t declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become so sprawling that it could easily be the case that NORAD has no idea what the NWS has up in the air.
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Weekly Market Pulse: A Fatal Conceit
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down 1.2%, exports are down 3.8%, and imports are down 4.3% over the last 3 months.
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Weekly Market Pulse: Currency Illusion
When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the endless lockdowns and have finally decided to try and do something about it. Unfortunately,...
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Weekly Market Pulse: The Real Reason The Fed Should Pause
The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish.
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Ross Geller inspires Bank of England policy
This morning the UK pound slumped as one of the world’s oldest central banks pressed hard on the panic button. The Bank of England was seen to be shouting ‘Pivot! Pivot! Pivaat!’ as they announced they would temporarily suspend their programme to sell gilts and will instead buy long-dated bonds.
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Weekly Market Pulse: No News Is…
Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy.
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Weekly Market Pulse: The More Things Change…
I stopped in a local antique shop over the weekend. The owner is retiring and trying to clear out as much as she can before they close the doors so I paid a mere $3 for the Life magazine above. I think it might be worth many multiples of that price for investors who think our situation today is somehow uniquely bad. The cover headline could just as easily be describing today as 1970.
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Ed Steer Gold And Silver – We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!
2022-10-05
by Stephen Flood
2022-10-05
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