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Tag Archives: Japan

New Index Tracks Trade Uncertainty Across the Globe

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri Español, Português Rising trade uncertainty is cited as a driving factor for “sluggish global growth” in the current issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which describes the state of the world economy. But how is trade uncertainty measured? How has it evolved over time? Are changes in trade uncertainty confined to specific countries and regions of the world? A new measure of trade uncertainty finds that by this measure of uncertainty...

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Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing...

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Tariff Shocks: The Role of Value Chains in Europe

By Raju Huidrom, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Laura Papi, and Emil Stavrev (Español, Português) The Czech Republic exports only a small number of cars and car parts directly to the United States, but it’s likely to suffer significant economic damage if that country were to impose tariffs on auto imports. The reason: the Czech Republic supplies parts that are used to build cars exported by other European countries. Europe’s auto industry is one of many that are part of global value chains, in...

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A Global Picture of Public Wealth

By Jason Harris, Abdelhak Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman Español, Português Our new data on government assets shows that when governments know what they own, they can make better use of the assets for the well-being of all their citizens.  We make these data free and publicly available for all to use because we believe transparency can help create better public policy.  The chart shows that advanced economies have larger balance sheets compared to emerging markets and low-income...

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How to Help, Not Hinder Global Growth

By Christine Lagarde As the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors gather this week in Fukuoka, they can take inspiration from their host city. Known as Japan’s “startup city,” Fukuoka has flourished in recent decades by embracing trade, innovation, and openness. That spirit is needed more than ever to help reduce trade tensions and clear other stumbling blocks on the way back to higher and more sustainable growth. The goal must be to help, not stand in the way of global growth....

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Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond. To get around...

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Three Steps to Avert a Debt Crisis

By Martin Mühleisen and Mark Flanagan 日本語 There has been much public discussion of the debt sustainability of a handful of high-risk countries. However, the burden of public debt is a growing problem across the globe. In advanced countries, public debt is at levels not seen since the Second World War, despite some declines recently. Emerging market public debt has accumulated to levels last seen during the 1980s debt crisis. And forty percent of low-income countries—that is, 24 of 60...

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Chart of the Week: Japan Grows Older

By IMFBlog January 14, 2018 A Japanese family together at home: Japan’s population will grow older and smaller over the next 30 years (photo: JohnnyGreig/iStock) Japan has had an extended period of strong economic growth. On the policy front, six years of “Abenomics” saw lower fiscal deficits, near-record unemployment, and higher female labor force participation. But economic and financial sector challenges are set to grow as demographic headwinds—the aging and shrinking of Japan’s...

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New Data on Global Debt

By Samba Mbaye and Marialuz Moreno Badia January 2, 2019 Pedestrians in the snow in Tokyo, Japan: the country is one of the top three borrowers in the world (photo: Morio Taga/Newscom) Until recently, we had a partial view of global debt. Our new update to the IMF’s Global Debt Database, first made public in May 2018, now fills even more of the gaps. We have compiled data on public and private debt for 190 countries, dating back to 1950, which now includes the latest numbers for...

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A New Social Contract

By Camilla Lund Andersen November 30, 2018 (photo: Michael Waraksa) As the world seeks to address the rise of populism and nationalism, it is becoming clear that economic insecurity lies at the heart of much of the discontent. In the wake of the global financial crisis, voters in wealthy countries began to lose faith in the state’s ability to protect them. The profound changes sweeping labor markets, caused by the rise of technology and continued globalization, have only deepened this...

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