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Tag Archives: Mexico

New Index Tracks Trade Uncertainty Across the Globe

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri Español, Português Rising trade uncertainty is cited as a driving factor for “sluggish global growth” in the current issue of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which describes the state of the world economy. But how is trade uncertainty measured? How has it evolved over time? Are changes in trade uncertainty confined to specific countries and regions of the world? A new measure of trade uncertainty finds that by this measure of uncertainty...

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Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: A Stalling Recovery

By Alejandro Werner Español Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean remains sluggish. Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2019—the slowest rate since 2016—before rising to 2.3 percent in 2020. The weak momentum reflects negative surprises in the first half of 2019, elevated domestic policy uncertainty in some large economies, heightened US-China trade tensions, and somewhat lower global growth. Elevated policy uncertainty in some large economies of the region has...

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Tariff Shocks: The Role of Value Chains in Europe

By Raju Huidrom, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Laura Papi, and Emil Stavrev (Español, Português) The Czech Republic exports only a small number of cars and car parts directly to the United States, but it’s likely to suffer significant economic damage if that country were to impose tariffs on auto imports. The reason: the Czech Republic supplies parts that are used to build cars exported by other European countries. Europe’s auto industry is one of many that are part of global value chains, in...

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A Global Picture of Public Wealth

By Jason Harris, Abdelhak Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman Español, Português Our new data on government assets shows that when governments know what they own, they can make better use of the assets for the well-being of all their citizens.  We make these data free and publicly available for all to use because we believe transparency can help create better public policy.  The chart shows that advanced economies have larger balance sheets compared to emerging markets and low-income...

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Chart of the WeekKeeping the Wheels of Commerce Turning

By IMFBlog The tariff disputes roiling markets are a reminder that the global system of free trade, which has delivered so much prosperity, is a fragile one. We all know what happened in the 1930s, when trade wars only served to deepen the misery inflicted by the Great Depression. That is why, after World War II, countries agreed to gradually reduce tariffs. But many continued to restrict flows of goods across borders in other ways as they sought to give their domestic industries an edge...

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How to Help, Not Hinder Global Growth

By Christine Lagarde As the G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors gather this week in Fukuoka, they can take inspiration from their host city. Known as Japan’s “startup city,” Fukuoka has flourished in recent decades by embracing trade, innovation, and openness. That spirit is needed more than ever to help reduce trade tensions and clear other stumbling blocks on the way back to higher and more sustainable growth. The goal must be to help, not stand in the way of global growth....

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Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond. To get around...

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Latin America and the Caribbean in 2019: A Moderate Expansion

By Alejandro Werner Español, Português Economic activity in Latin America continues to rise, but at a slower rate than previously anticipated. The weakening global economy and rising policy uncertainty are contributing to slowing Latin America’s growth momentum. Overall, the region is expected to advance by 2 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent in 2020—still well below peer countries in other regions. A tightening of global financial conditions and lower commodity prices brought on by...

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A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections. The downward revisions are modest; however, we believe the risks to more significant...

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Chart of the Week: Mexico’s Spike in Crime Hurts the Economy

By Christian Saborowski December 18, 2018 (Español, Português) A woman sells street food at a market stall in Mexico City, Mexico: the country’s spike in crime is hurting small businesses’ profitability (photo: Jonah_Photos/iStock) The human and economic costs of crime in Mexico have risen to historic highs. 2017 was Mexico’s most violent year on record with over 25,000 homicides—a 50 percent jump since 2015. Economists usually distinguish direct and indirect costs associated with...

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