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Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

The Housing Boom and the Decline in Mortgage Rates

Haoyang Liu, David Lucca, Dean Parker, and Gabriela Rays-Wahba During the pandemic, national home values and housing activity soared as mortgage rates declined to historic lows. Under the canonical “user cost” house price model, home values are held to be very sensitive to interest rates, especially at low interest rate levels. A calibration of this model can account for the house price boom with the observed decline in interest rates. But empirically, we find that home values are nowhere...

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“Die Nationalbank ist an vielen Fronten gefordert (Challenges for the Swiss National Bank),” NZZ, 2021

NZZ, August 10, 2021. PDF (title changed by NZZ). Should the SNB follow the Fed and the ECB and rework its strategy? There is a case for rethinking the broad inflation target, the monetary policy concept, and the communication strategy. Equally important is a strategy review outside of the SNB: The SNB cannot and must not decide about the framework within which it operates. Conclusion: Daher ist eine Strategieüberprüfung inner- und ausserhalb der SNB sinnvoll....

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“Die Nationalbank ist an vielen Fronten gefordert (Challenges for the Swiss National Bank),” NZZ, 2021

NZZ, August 10, 2021. PDF (title changed by NZZ). Should the SNB follow the Fed and the ECB and rework its strategy? There is a case for rethinking the broad inflation target, the monetary policy concept, and the communication strategy. Equally important is a strategy review outside of the SNB: The SNB cannot and must not decide about the framework within which it operates. Conclusion: Daher ist eine Strategieüberprüfung inner- und ausserhalb der SNB sinnvoll....

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Cryptoassets as National Currency? A Step Too Far

By Tobias Adrian and Rhoda Weeks-Brown New digital forms of money have the potential to provide cheaper and faster payments, enhance financial inclusion, improve resilience and competition among payment providers, and facilitate cross-border transfers. But doing so is not straightforward. It requires significant investment as well as difficult policy choices, such as clarifying the role of the public and private sectors in providing and regulating digital forms of money. Some countries may be...

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Taming Market Power Could (also) Help Monetary Policy

By Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, and Marina M. Tavares Some central banks are currently debating whether to tighten monetary policy to fight inflationary pressures, after having eased decisively in response to the COVID-19 shock. In making such decisions, central bankers have to consider how much businesses and consumers will respond. The structure of the financial system and the future expectations of consumers and businesses are key drivers of how effective monetary policy actions will be....

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How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Affect Emerging Market Economies?

Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto The question of how U.S. monetary policy affects foreign economies has received renewed interest in recent years. The bulk of the empirical evidence points to sizable effects, especially on emerging market economies (EMEs). A key theme in the literature is that these spillovers operate largely through financial channels—that is, the effects of a U.S. policy tightening manifest themselves abroad via declines in international risky asset prices, tighter...

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How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Affect Emerging Market Economies?

Ozge Akinci and Albert Queralto The question of how U.S. monetary policy affects foreign economies has received renewed interest in recent years. The bulk of the empirical evidence points to sizable effects, especially on emerging market economies (EMEs). A key theme in the literature is that these spillovers operate largely through financial channels—that is, the effects of a U.S. policy tightening manifest themselves abroad via declines in international risky asset prices, tighter...

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Understanding the Rise in Long-Term Rates

By Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel, Sheheryar Malik, Fabio Natalucci عربي, Español, Français, Português, Русский The rise in long-term US interest rates has become a focus of global macro-financial concerns. The nominal yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has increased about 70 basis points since the beginning of the year. This reflects in part an improving US economic outlook amid strong fiscal support and the accelerating recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. So an increase would be expected....

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Short-term Shot and Long-term Healing for Latin America and the Caribbean

By Alejandro Werner, Takuji Komatsuzaki, and Carlo Pizzinelli Español, Português Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean recovered briskly in the second half of 2020, yet still more slowly than the global economy and other emerging markets. That’s despite unprecedented policy support, strong performance of trading partners, soaring commodity prices and accommodative global financial conditions. The persistence of the health crisis in many countries casts a shadow on the near-term outlook....

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How Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Emerging Markets

  By Philipp Engler, Roberto Piazza and Galen Sher عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский Rapid vaccine rollout in the United States and passage of its $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package have boosted its expected economic recovery. In anticipation, longer-term US interest rates have risen rapidly, with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities going from under 1 percent at the start of the year to over 1.75 percent in mid-March. A similar surge has occurred in the United...

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