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Tag Archives: Pandemic

Chart of the WeekInflation to be Elevated for Longer on War, Demand, Job Markets

By Jorge Alvarez and Philip Barrett The war in Ukraine will quicken inflation, which we now expect to remain elevated for longer than previously forecast on higher commodity costs and broader price pressures. As the Chart of the Week shows, our latest World Economic Outlook now projects faster consumer-price increases this year for advanced economies as well as in emerging market and developing economies. These forecasts also have a high degree of uncertainty. Russia’s invasion of its...

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Latin America Faces Unusually High Risks

By Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea, Ilan Goldfajn and Jorge Roldos Español, Português The War in Ukraine, higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, economic decelerations of key trading partners, and social discontent may dim growth prospects. The war in Ukraine is shaking the global economy and raising uncertainty about the outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. The impact is being felt in Latin America through higher inflation that is affecting real incomes, especially of the most...

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Who Are the Federal Student Loan Borrowers and Who Benefits from Forgiveness?

Jacob Goss, Daniel Mangrum, and Joelle Scally The pandemic forbearance for federal student loans was recently extended for a sixth time—marking a historic thirty-month pause on federal student loan payments. The first post in this series uses survey data to help us understand which borrowers are likely to struggle when the pandemic forbearance ends. The results from this survey and the experience of some federal borrowers who did not receive forbearance during the pandemic suggest that...

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What Might Happen When Student Loan Forbearance Ends?

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Jessica Lu, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Federal student loan relief was recently extended through August 31, 2022, marking the sixth extension during the pandemic. Such debt relief includes the suspension of student loan payments, a waiver of interest, and the stopping of collections activity on defaulted loans. The suspension of student loan payments was expected to help 41 million borrowers save an estimated $5 billion per month. This post is the first in a two-part...

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Governments Need Agile Fiscal Policies as Food and Fuel Prices Spike

By Jean-Marc Fournier, Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas and Roberto Accioly Perrelli عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Русский Spending imperatives from pandemic and war meet high debt and tight budget constraints. Just as increasing vaccinations offered hope, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted the global economic recovery. One of the most visible global effects has been the acceleration of energy and food prices, triggering concerns about episodes of food shortages and increasing the risks of...

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Inflation Persistence: How Much Is There and Where Is It Coming From?

Martín Almuzara and Argia Sbordone The surge in inflation since early 2021 has sparked intense debate. Would it be short-lived or prove to be persistent? Would it be concentrated within a few sectors or become broader? The answers to these questions are not so clear-cut. In our view, one should ask how much of the inflation is persistent and how much of it is broad-based. In this post, we address this question through a quantitative lens. We find that the large ups and downs in inflation...

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War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский The effects of the war will propagate far and wide, adding to price pressures and exacerbating significant policy challenges. Global economic prospects have been severely set back, largely because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This crisis unfolds even as the global economy has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic. Even before the war, inflation in many countries had been rising due to supply-demand...

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Private Debt to Weigh on Global Economic Recovery

By Silvia Albrizio, Sonali Das, Christoffer Koch, Jean-Marc Natal, and Philippe Wingender عربي, 中文, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский A record rise in private debt could slow the economic recovery, but the drag on growth will vary across countries and within them. Governments succeeded in lessening the economic pain of the pandemic by providing plenty of liquidity to stricken consumers and businesses through credit guarantees, concessional lending and moratoriums on interest payments. But...

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Global Trade Needs More Supply Diversity, Not Less

By Davide Malacrino, Adil Mohommad, and Andrea Presbitero عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский Countries with trade partners that implemented more stringent lockdowns had a sharper drop in imports. Though trade flows have adjusted, more diversified global value chains could help lessen the impact of future shocks. The demand and supply shocks unleashed by the pandemic were expected to lead to a dramatic collapse in trade, but international commerce has proven more resilient...

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Dangerous Global Debt Burden Requires Decisive Cooperation

By Vitor Gaspar and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu With elevated risks to sovereign debt, a global cooperative approach is necessary to reach an orderly resolution of debt problems and prevent defaults. We live in dangerous times. The world faces renewed uncertainty, as war comes on top of an ever-changing and persistent pandemic, now in its third year. Moreover, problems that predated COVID-19 have not gone away. When policymakers return to Washington in the coming days for the Spring Meetings of the...

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