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Tag Archives: uncertainty

Chart of the WeekHow Stock Markets Respond to Social Unrest

Philip Barrett and Sophia Chen What happens to stock markets when social unrest—such as mass protests and riots—occurs? Are investors scared-off by the disorder? Or are they buoyed by the prospect of positive, popular change in response to unrest? Our chart of the week, drawn from our recent IMF staff working paper, uses a new dataset of 156 social unrest events during 2011–20 to shed some light on these questions. It shows that in countries with more open and democratic institutions, social...

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What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri عربي, Español, 中文, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. The World Uncertainty Index—a quarterly measure of global economic and policy uncertainty covering 143 countries—shows that although uncertainty has come down by about 60 percent from the peak observed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, it remains...

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Chart of the weekGlobal Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High

By Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri The coronavirus continues to spread. As more countries impose quarantines and social distancing, the fear of contagion and income losses is increasing uncertainty around the world. A new measure of uncertainty related to pandemics and other disease outbreaks finds that uncertainty around the coronavirus is exceptionally high and is much higher than in past outbreaks. To quantify uncertainty related to the coronavirus crisis and compare it...

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Revisiting stablecoins

Source: Gravity Glue (2014) Cryptocurrencies were supposed to destroy the traditional monetary system. Ten years on, where are we?Bitcoin has been wildly successful, but as a financial game--not as a medium of exchange. It's a fun (and potentially profitable) way to gamble on what Keynes once described as what "average opinion expects the average opinion to be." But no one really uses it to pay for stuff. It's nature as a gambling token makes it too awkward to serve as a true substitute for...

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Did Brexit break the banknote?

Nations never experience year-over-year declines in cash in circulation. Sweden (which I wrote about here, here, and here) is one of the rare exceptions. India is another, but this was due to its notorious botched demonetization attempt (which I wrote about here, here, here, and here). But now the UK seems to be joining this small group of outliers. Why does a nation's cash in circulation generally grow consistently from one year to the next? While economies do experience the odd...

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