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Tag Archives: Unemployment

Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean: A Stalling Recovery

By Alejandro Werner Español Economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean remains sluggish. Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6 percent in 2019—the slowest rate since 2016—before rising to 2.3 percent in 2020. The weak momentum reflects negative surprises in the first half of 2019, elevated domestic policy uncertainty in some large economies, heightened US-China trade tensions, and somewhat lower global growth. Elevated policy uncertainty in some large economies of the region has...

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Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

By Shekhar Aiyar, John Bluedorn, and Romain Duval Español, Français, Português Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties. A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years. An...

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Designing Labor Policies to Foster Inclusive Growth in Emerging Markets

By Romain Duval and Prakash Loungani Emerging market economies have enjoyed good growth in recent decades but are still far from closing gaps in living standards with advanced economies. Emerging markets also need growth to be shared by everyone, particularly by providing their growing populations with good jobs and social protection. In a new IMF staff paper, we look at how the design of labor markets—institutions and policies—could foster inclusive growth in these countries.    ...

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Did Changes in Economic Expectations Foreshadow Swings in the 2018 Elections?

Olivier Armantier, Michael Neubauer, Daphne Skandalis, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Second of two posts In the months leading up to the 2018 midterm elections, were economic expectations in congressional districts about to elect a Republican similar to those in districts about to elect a Democrat? How did economic expectations evolve in districts where the party holding the House seat would switch? After examining the persistence of polarization in expectations...

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Just Released: The New York Fed’s New Regional Economy Website

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Jonathan Hastings The New York Fed today unveiled a newly designed website on the regional economy that offers convenient access to a wide array of regional data, analysis, and research that the Bank makes available to the public. Focusing specifically on the Federal Reserve’s Second District, which includes New York State, Northern New Jersey, Southwestern Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the new site also features...

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Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending

Fatih Karahan, Brendan Moore, and Laura Pilossoph Unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States. A large body of work has carefully documented that job loss may have long-term effects on one’s career, depressing earnings by as much as 20 percent after fifteen to twenty years. Given the severity of a job loss for earnings, an important question is how much such an event affects one’s standard of living during a...

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Just Released: Introducing the SCE Household Spending Survey

Gizem Kosar, Kyle Smith, and Wilbert van der Klaauw Today we are releasing new data on individuals’ experiences and expectations regarding household spending. These data have been collected every four months since December 2014 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The goal of this blog post is to introduce the SCE Household Spending Survey and highlight some of its features. While the SCE Household Spending Survey shares design features with the main...

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Chart of the Week: Japan Grows Older

By IMFBlog January 14, 2018 A Japanese family together at home: Japan’s population will grow older and smaller over the next 30 years (photo: JohnnyGreig/iStock) Japan has had an extended period of strong economic growth. On the policy front, six years of “Abenomics” saw lower fiscal deficits, near-record unemployment, and higher female labor force participation. But economic and financial sector challenges are set to grow as demographic headwinds—the aging and shrinking of Japan’s...

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Just Released: New York State’s Community Colleges are Successfully Partnering with Employers

Jaison R. Abel, Tony Davis, Richard Deitz, and Edison Reyes Community colleges frequently work with local employers to help shape the training of students and incumbent workers. This type of engagement has become an increasingly important strategy for community colleges to help students acquire the right skills for available jobs, and also helps local employers find and retain workers with the training they need. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducted a survey of community...

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The Wealth of Nations: Governments Can Better Manage What They Own and Owe

By Vitor Gaspar, Jason Harris, and Alexander Tieman October 10, 2018 A firefighter in Auckland, New Zealand: when governments know what they own they can put their assets to better use and can earn about 3 percent of GDP more in revenues to spend on citizens’ well being (Photo: Rafael Ben-Ari/Newscom) What is the state of your personal finances? You probably think first about your debts: your mortgage, your credit card balance, and your student loans. But you probably also think about...

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