Sunday , November 29 2020
Home / Tag Archives: Unemployment

Tag Archives: Unemployment

Building an Inclusive Recovery in the Middle East and Central Asia

By Jihad Azour and Joyce Wong  عربي, Français, Русский  Countries in the Middle East and Central Asia face with COVID-19 a public health emergency unlike any seen in our lifetime, along with an unprecedented economic downturn. The pandemic is exacerbating existing economic and social challenges, calling for urgent action to mitigate the threat of long-term damage to incomes and growth. As analyzed in our new Regional Economic Outlook, while the region responded resolutely and swiftly to save...

Read More »

How Do Consumers Believe the Pandemic Will Affect the Economy and Their Households?

Olivier Armantier, Leo Goldman, Gizem Koşar, Jessica Lu, Rachel Pomerantz, and Wilbert van der Klaauw In this post we analyze consumer beliefs about the duration of the economic impact of the pandemic and present new evidence on their expected spending, income, debt delinquency, and employment outcomes, conditional on different scenarios for the future path of the pandemic. We find that between June and August respondents to the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)...

Read More »

How Did State Reopenings Affect Small Businesses?

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Sebastian Heise, Davide Melcangi, Maxim Pinkovskiy, and Giorgio Topa In our previous post, we looked at the effects that the reopening of state economies across the United States has had on consumer spending. We found a significant effect of reopening, especially regarding spending in restaurants and bars as well as in the healthcare sector. In this companion post, we focus specifically on small businesses, using two different sources of high-frequency data,...

Read More »

What’s Up with the Phillips Curve?

William Chen, Marco Del Negro, Michele Lenza, Giorgio Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti U.S. inflation used to rise during economic booms, as businesses charged higher prices to cope with increases in wages and other costs. When the economy cooled and joblessness rose, inflation declined. This pattern changed around 1990. Since then, U.S. inflation has been remarkably stable, even though economic activity and unemployment have continued to fluctuate. For example, during the Great...

Read More »

Chart of the WeekUnemployment in Today’s Recession Compared to the Global Financial Crisis

By Ippei Shibata There has been much discussion in recent months about how workers who transitioned to working from home—and those who were deemed “essential”—are less affected by the layoffs and job losses brought on by lockdowns than are workers in “social” jobs that require closer human interaction, like restaurant workers. However, our new IMF staff research suggests that this does not tell the full story. In particular, we find that while teleworkable jobs are indeed more secure than...

Read More »

The COVID-19 Gender Gap

By Kristalina Georgieva, Stefania Fabrizio, Cheng Hoon Lim, and Marina M. Tavares عربي, 中文, Español,  Français, 日本語, Português, Русский  The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to roll back gains in women’s economic opportunities, widening gender gaps that persist despite 30 years of progress. Well-designed policies to foster recovery can mitigate the negative effects of the crisis on women and prevent further setbacks for gender equality. What is good for women is ultimately good for addressing...

Read More »

Delaying College During the Pandemic Can Be Costly

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz Many students are reconsidering their decision to go to college in the fall due to the coronavirus pandemic. Indeed, college enrollment is expected to be down sharply as a growing number of would-be college students consider taking a gap year. In part, this pullback reflects concerns about health and safety if colleges resume in-person classes, or missing out on the “college experience” if classes are held online. In addition, poor labor market...

Read More »

Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Benjamin G. Hyman The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June business surveys show some signs of improvement in the regional economy. Following two months of unprecedented decline due to the coronavirus pandemic, indicators of business activity point to a slower pace of contraction in the service sector and signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Even more encouraging, as the regional economy has begun to reopen, many...

Read More »

Job Training Mismatch and the COVID-19 Recovery: A Cautionary Note from the Great Recession

Benjamin G. Hyman and Karen X. Ni Displaced workers have been shown to endure persistent losses years beyond their initial job separation events. These losses are especially amplified during recessions. (1) One explanation for greater persistence in downturns relative to booms, is that firms and industries on the margin of structural change permanently shift the types of tasks and occupations demanded after a large negative shock (Aghion et al. (2005)), but these new occupations...

Read More »

Consumers Increasingly Expect Additional Government Support amid COVID-19 Pandemic

Gizem Koşar, Kyle Smith, and Wilbert van der Klaauw The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released results today from its April 2020 SCE Public Policy Survey, which provides information on consumers' expectations regarding future changes to a wide range of fiscal and social insurance policies and the potential impact of these changes on their households. These data have been collected every four months since October 2015 as part of our Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)....

Read More »