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Tag Archives: United Kingdom

Taming the Currency Hype

By Gustavo Adler, Luis Cubeddu, and Gita Gopinath Escalating trade tensions are taking a toll on the global economy and are partly responsible for the recent downward revisions to our growth forecasts for 2019-20. Facing sluggish growth and below-target inflation, many advanced and emerging market economies have appropriately eased monetary policy, yet this has prompted concerns over so-called beggar-thy-neighbor policies and fears of a currency war. In this blog post, we discuss the...

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Sluggish Global Growth Calls for Supportive Policies

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский In our July update of the World Economic Outlook we are revising downward our projection for global growth to 3.2 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020. While this is a modest revision of 0.1 percentage points for both years relative to our projections in April, it comes on top of previous significant downward revisions. The revision for 2019 reflects negative surprises for growth in emerging market and developing...

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Rebalancing the Global Economy: Some Progress but Challenges Ahead

By Gita Gopinath Español, 日本語 Following the global financial crisis, overall current account surpluses and deficits fell sharply from about 6 percent of global GDP in 2007 to about 3.5 percent in 2013. Since then, as shown in our new External Sector Report, global current account imbalances have declined only slightly to 3 percent of world GDP in 2018, while rotating toward advanced economies and away from emerging economies, including China whose current account is now broadly in line with...

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A Global Picture of Public Wealth

By Jason Harris, Abdelhak Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman Español, Português Our new data on government assets shows that when governments know what they own, they can make better use of the assets for the well-being of all their citizens.  We make these data free and publicly available for all to use because we believe transparency can help create better public policy.  The chart shows that advanced economies have larger balance sheets compared to emerging markets and low-income...

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Chart of the WeekKeeping the Wheels of Commerce Turning

By IMFBlog The tariff disputes roiling markets are a reminder that the global system of free trade, which has delivered so much prosperity, is a fragile one. We all know what happened in the 1930s, when trade wars only served to deepen the misery inflicted by the Great Depression. That is why, after World War II, countries agreed to gradually reduce tariffs. But many continued to restrict flows of goods across borders in other ways as they sought to give their domestic industries an edge...

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The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

By Gita Gopinath عربي, 中文, Español, Français, 日本語, Português, Русский A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US–China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a...

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Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

By Ruchir Agarwal and Signe Krogstrup Many central banks reduced policy interest rates to zero during the global financial crisis to boost growth. Ten years later, interest rates remain low in most countries. While the global economy has been recovering, future downturns are inevitable. Severe recessions have historically required 3–6 percentage points cut in policy rates. If another crisis happens, few countries would have that kind of room for monetary policy to respond. To get around...

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The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy

By Jiaqian Chen December 4, 2018 中文, Русский A UK border agency worker holds a passport: As a member of the European Union, free labor mobility has enabled the UK to hire talent from across the EU (photo: Mac Gregor/Reuters/Newscom) The United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union in March 2019. Our research suggests that all likely Brexit outcomes will entail an economic cost for the UK, and these costs would be unevenly spread across different sectors and regions. The UK’s...

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G20: Step Up to Boost Inclusive Growth

By Christine Lagarde November 28, 2018 عربي, 中文, Español, Português, Русский Puerto Madero harbor, Buenos Aires, Argentina: G20 countries will need to act swiftly and together to boost inclusive growth (photo: Florian Kopp imageBROKER/Newscom) As G20 leaders gather in Argentina, the global economy faces a critical juncture. We have had a good stretch of solid growth by historical standards, but now we are facing a period where significant risks are materializing and darker clouds are...

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Chart of the Week: Grading the G-20 on its Growth Goals

By Helge Berger and Margaux MacDonald November 19, 2018  Español, Português Growth is stronger in the G-20 but progress toward more balanced, sustainable, and inclusive growth is slow (photo: Egon Bömsch imageBROKER/Newscom) This blog is dedicated to the memory of Giang Ho, an IMF economist who died suddenly this past August. Her efforts and ingenuity were critical to carrying out this analytical work. We miss her and will never forget her.  How close has the Group of Twenty...

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