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Tag Archives: Yield Curve

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By IMFBlog Trade wars and inverted yield curves do not typically top the charts of your summer, beach-friendly reading list. But summer in the Northern Hemisphere has disappeared as quickly as your last strawberry daquiri, right along with your ability to remember your computer password.  Trade wars and inverted yield curves do not typically top the charts of your summer reading list. Need a hand shifting gears?  We have put together a primer of our recent blogs, each a quick read, on...

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The Slope of the US Yield Curve and Risks to Growth

By Tobias Adrian, Rohit Goel and Fabio Natalucci The slope of the yield curve in the US has inverted in recent months, making long-term debt significantly cheaper than short-term debt. This inversion is a gauge of investors’ confidence in the economy and signals doubts about future growth. The slope of the Treasury yield curve is the difference between the interest rate on long-term and short-term debt; and each time the curve inverts, there are questions about the reliability of the...

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Dollar & Stocks Jump; Bonds & Bullion Dump In Lowest Volatility September Ever

It has now been 318 trading days since the S&P 500 suffered a 5% drawdown – the 4th-longest streak since 1928… So everything is awesome… [embedded content] BUT…US ‘hard’ economic data has not been this weak (and seen the biggest drop) since Feb 2009… US Data Surprise Index, 2006 - 2017 - Click to enlarge Q3 Was a Roller-Coaster… Q3 was the 8th straight quarterly gain in a row for The Dow – the longest streak...

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BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE

Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs... Dow futures have plunged... What a mess... And Nikkei has crashed over 1000 points... And...

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BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE

Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs... Dow futures have...

Read More »

BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE

Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs... Dow futures have...

Read More »