Tag Archive: Canada
Yen Retreats, while Stronger EMU GDP Underscores Nascent Recovery and Lifts the Euro
Overview: Stronger than expected eurozone GDP
strengthened the sense that a nascent recovery may be taking hold and has given
the euro a bid in the European morning. The dollar, though, is enjoying a
firmer tone against the other G10 currencies today. Australia's unexpected
weakness in retail sales has weighed on the Antipodean currencies. The Aussie
and Kiwi are off slightly more than 0.5% today. Japanese data were mixed (a
recovery in industrial...
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US CPI, New Security Initiatives with Tokyo and Manila, Bank of Canada Meeting
Overview: The dollar has been confined to narrow ranges ahead of the US CPI report. Given the backup of US rates and the stronger-than-expected jobs growth, the greenback's performance has been unimpressive.
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Will the Market Push the Dollar Above JPY152 as Japanese Prime Minister Heads to the US?
Overview: The jump in US rates after the employment
report failed to ignite a sustained rally in the dollar and this shaken the
market's near-term confidence. The dollar has been mostly confined to narrow
ranges and the low yielding Swiss franc and Japanese yen are softest with the
G10 complex today. The dollar is knocking on JPY152. The Scandis and Antipodeans lead the advancers. The euro has
made little headway despite a much stronger than...
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US Employment Data to Set Dollar’s Course
Overview: The
focus is squarely on the US employment report. At the risk of oversimplifying,
given the position adjustment in the past 48 hours, a solid report can see the
greenback recover, while a disappointing report will likely see it deepen the
correction of the rally that began with the February jobs report. The dollar
recovered in the North American afternoon yesterday and many observers
attributed it to the bevy of Fed comments. Yet, the...
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Greenback Losses Extended, but Look for Consolidation in North America
Overview: The softer-than-expected ISM services report caught the market leaning the wrong way. Although interest rates had a muted reaction, the dollar was sold. In fact, the Dollar Index saw its second-biggest loss of the year, falling by about 0.50%. ISM services prices paid increases moderated to their slowest since March 2020. Supplier deliveries improved to their best since 2009, suggesting a supply chain improvement. Still, the Fed funds...
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Rate Adjustment Underpins Greenback
Overview: The adjustment to US interest rates
continues and this helps underpin the US dollar. The 10-year yield rose to
4.40% yesterday, the highest it has been since last November. It is trading
4.34%-4.38% today. The two-year yield is firm though holding below the Q1 high
set last month near 4.75%. This week, for the first time since last October,
the Fed funds futures do not have at least a quarter point cut discounted for
July. As recently as...
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China PMI is Better than Expected but the Greenback Still Rises above CNY7.23
Overview: The dollar is trading quietly against the G10
currencies as European markets remain on holiday. Narrow ranges have prevailed.
The dollar-bloc currencies are leading with minor gains, perhaps helped on the
margins by better-than-expected Chinese PMI, but the Scandis, which also
typically do well amid a better global growth profile are the laggards. This
may speak to the light liquidity conditions. Japan may have missed a tactical...
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Greenback Surges after BOJ Hikes and Ends YCC and RBA Delivers a Dovish Hold
The US dollar is surging today against most of the G10 currencies, and although the intraday momentum is stretched ahead of start of the North American session, there may be little incentive to resist before the end of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
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Japan’s Q4 23 Contraction Revised Away, Helping Keep Yen Bid
Overview: News that the Japanese economy expanded rather than contracted in Q4 23 has fanned expectations that rates could be as early as next week. This is helping keep the yen supported, though it remains in the pre-weekend range, albeit barely.
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Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America
Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address.
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Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08
Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.
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Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies
The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.
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Dollar Jumps
Overview: A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a slightly softer than expected January CPI from Australia appears to have sparked a broad US dollar rally.
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Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America
Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The
dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European
currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central
European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable
exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan
is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last
week, more often...
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While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America
Overview: Amid a light news stream,
the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside
the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We
note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the
five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the
other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near
JPY150.90. Emerging market...
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Risk On, Dollar Sold
Overview: The
post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on
activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's
CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the
open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than
0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are
poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...
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Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity
Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is
trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable
exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last
week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are
stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are
also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and
Swiss franc are...
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Becalmed FX Market doesn’t Conceal the Greenback’s Strength
Overview: The foreign exchange market is
becalmed today, with most of the major pairs trading in narrow ranges. The
economic calendar is light and the North American session features benchmark
revisions in US CPI and Canada's January employment figures. The US quarterly
refunding supply has been absorbed without much fanfare. The dollar-bloc
currencies and the Norwegian krone are firmer today. A bank forecast that the
central bank will hike rates...
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Sterling Moves Back into Previous Trading Range, but will it Hold?
Overview: The dollar is trading with a
slightly heavier bias as some of its recent gains are pared. Sterling has moved
back into the $1.26-$1.28 trading range that dominated since the middle of last
December until the start of this week. The euro is also trading a little firmer
despite another large drop in German industrial output (-1.6%). The Japanese
yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone are the notable exceptions with a softer profile....
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Oil Retraces Initial Surge, Euro Slips to Marginal New Low, while Sterling Hugs $1.27
Overview: Key developments today include the Hong
Kong court ordered liquidation of China's Evergrande and the reversal of oil
prices after a sharp rally initially in Asia after separate attack in the
Middle East that killed US troops in Jordan and struck a Russian oil tank in
the Red Sea. March WTI, which settled near $78 ahead of the weekend, its best
level since the end of last November, rallied to about $79.30 before returning
to almost $77.50...
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